NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Best Bets: Picks for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500
Photo by Michael Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Joey Logano (22) Team Penske Ford Mustang, Ryan Blaney (12) Team Penske Ford Mustang, William Byron (24) Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet Camaro ZL1 1LE, and Brad Keselowski (2) Team Penske Ford Mustang
- NASCAR is back at Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 (3 p.m. ET, FOX).
- Based on updated odds, Kevin Harvick is the race favorite, with Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch right behind.
- Continue reading to learn about two future bets we took earlier this week for the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.
After an exciting day short-trackin’ it at Bristol, NASCAR heads to Atlanta Motor Speedway for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500.
Without a midweek Cup Series race, we have a more traditional NASCAR betting schedule with odds opening on Monday and available throughout the week.
At first look, there are two drivers that I’m jumping on right now, then will continue to add to my Atlanta betting card as raceday approaches.
Here are my first two bets for Sunday’s Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta.
NASCAR at Atlanta Odds, Betting Picks
Ryan Blaney (+1600)
Atlanta Motor Speedway is a 1.5-mile racetrack, just like Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Charlotte Motor Speedway, which have both hosted races this season.
In fact, Charlotte recently held two Cup Series races so there is some data available. However, Atlanta is a high tire wear track, where Vegas and Charlotte are much easier on tires, so they’re not perfect comps.
Darlington, which hosted two races when NASCAR restarted its season last month, wears out tires like Atlanta, but is a very unique 1.366-mile egg-shaped oval, so it’s not a perfect comparison in its own right.
In Blaney’s case, Darlington is one of his worst racetracks, so I’m leaning more heavily on Charlotte and results at Auto Club Speedway, another high-tire-wear track, in March.
It’s a bit arbitrary, I know, but the fact that he simply hasn’t been able to figure out a track as tough and unique as Darlington doesn’t correlate to how he’ll perform at at Atlanta, and it’s also why he’s 16-1 and not shorter.
Chase Elliott was clearly the fastest car over the two races at Charlotte, and according to the metrics Blaney was quietly the second-best car, highlighted by the second-best average finish, the third-best average running position and the second-best driver rating.
And it’s his performance at Auto Club that sold me on this bet because it shows Blaney can also contend at a track with much more significant tire wear than Charlotte.
Back in March, Blaney, who won Stage 2 in that race, led the second-most laps, ran the second-most fast laps and had the second-best driver rating, but scored a finish of just 19th place thanks to a flat tire with just three laps remaining while running in second place.
Blaney’s price is good down to 14-1.
William Byron (+3300)
Byron is fast, but his finishes keep falling short of his speed. At Charlotte, the driver of Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 24 Chevy not only finished with the fourth-fastest average green flag speed in the Coca-Cola 600, but he also backed that up with the fastest average green flag speed in the Alsco Uniforms 500 a few days later.
If you remember, Byron was actually leading that race before getting hit by Corey LaJoie on pit road, essentially taking him out of contention of an event so short and reliant on track position.
Still, even after having to work his way from the back, Byron salvaged a 12th-place finish and was the fastest car, in terms of green flag speed, despite being stuck back in traffic for the majority of the race.
As if I needed it with Byron, that was enough to convince me to take another shot at him on Sunday at Atlanta.
Please note that the value with Byron lies in the 33-1 price. It’s key to go ahead and lock in both he and Blaney now at these numbers because that affords us enough bankroll to add two favorites to our cards in the coming days.
Take the time to shop the market because +3300 is out there, and I certainly wouldn’t bet this at anything shorter than +2800.