Nuggets vs. Thunder Odds & Betting Predictions - March 11, 2025

Accidentally tracked the first play of this as 1u when it was 1.5u

Will gladly take Chet in this spot after he sold most of the community yesterday. LG (while dealing with foul trouble) he scored 14 PTS on 10 FGA in 26 MIN. AG got hurt halfway through the first quarter and is ruled out for today's game. DEN already had little paint presence and now lack physicality and size down low. Non-center bigs vs. DEN w/o AG: - Horford: 19 PTS (12 FGA, +4.8) - Clowney: 14 PTS (9 FGA, +1.0) - Lauri: 17 PTS (13 FGA, -2.0) - Mobley: 26 PTS (13 FGA, +0.6) - PJ: 22 PTS (15 FGA, +3.2) - JJJ: 19 PTS (17 FGA, +0.5) - JJJ: 20 PTS (16 FGA, +1.5) All bigs above have a similar archetype/shot selection to Chet within their teams offenses and 5/7 covered their line vs. a Gordon-less Denver team and 6/7 hit their AVG FGA. Chet AVG 18.54 PTS and 12.4 FGA w/ 25+ MIN and is over 10/13 - 4/5 @ home on better shooting splits. In three games vs. DEN: - 25 PTS on 18 FGA - 15 PTS on 14 FGA - 14 PTS on 10 FGA He's over 8/9 w/ 11+ FGA, which is still one below his AVG. When he takes 12+, he's over 7/7. Even with the obvious mismatch in the paint, DEN can't afford to send too much help, as it'd leave Shai on an island + OKC have the highest 3P% since the break. Blowout isn't too much of a concern here because of his rotation. Chet starts the 2nd/4th quarters, so unless it's a 30 point game by the 4th, he should see that rotation, which is key since Shai is off the floor then. This is his first B2B since his injury but minutes shouldn't be a concern since he only played 26 yesterday, plus it was an earlier start time, so it's not exactly a 24 hour turnaround.

The Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder will clash on Monday Night. Tonight will be the second consecutive game between these two teams. Yesterday, the Thunder defeated the Nuggets 127-103. The win improved the Thunder’s record to 53-11, the best record in the Western Conference. OKC has won seven consecutive games and nine of their last ten. Shai Gilegous-Alexander leads the team with 32.9 points per game and 6.2 assists. Denver comes into the matchup with a record of 41-23. Michael Malone's team trails the Thunder by 12 games in the West and is tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for second place in the conference. The Nuggets have won six of their last ten games and will attempt to rebound from yesterday’s performance. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic leads the team with 28.8 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.5 assists. Pick: Isiah Joe Over 6.5 Points +110 We are getting substantial value on this prop at + money. Joe has averaged 9.4 points per game in 20.7 minutes this season. The former Arkansas Sharpshooter has performed well against this number lately, exceeding 6.5 points in 18 of his last 24 games. Our Action Pro Report projects 8.8 points from Joe tonight, giving us a strong edge on this prop.

Sandy