Five NBA Prop Bets For Saturday Night
Isaiah J. Downing- USA Today Sports
There are seven games on tap for tonight’s slate, and as usual the FantasyLabs Player Props tool has identified a variety of bets that warrant consideration. There are currently 10 bets with a Bet Quality of 10, and an additional 21 bets with a Bet Quality of at least eight.
If you’re catching this later in the day, the players featured in this article play at 7:30, 9:00, and 10:00 p.m. ET. Here are five bets that I have my eye on for tonight’s slate.
Courtney Lee Under 12.5 points (-130 at Bovada)
7:30 p.m. ET
This might be my favorite prop bet ever. The Knicks are clearly playing for the future at this point, which means more minutes for guys like Emmanuel Mudiay, Trey Burke, and Frank Ntilikina, and fewer minutes for veterans like Lee. He played just 14 minutes in the Knicks’ first game after the All-Star Break and is projected for a similar workload today in the FantasyLabs NBA Models. That this game is against the Boston Celtics, who rank first in the league in defensive rating, makes this bet even more appealing.
Kyle Kuzma Under 14.5 points (-120 at Sportsbook.com)
10:00 p.m. ET
Kuzma was a revelation early in the season, but his numbers have waned as the year has progressed. He’s averaged only 23.75 minutes per game through his first eight games in February and has cracked the 15-point mark in just three of them. Two of those games have come against up-tempo teams in the Pelicans and Suns, while today’s matchup with the Kings should be played at a much slower pace.
Derrick Favors Over 7.5 rebounds (-115 at Bovada)
9:00 p.m. ET
I picked on the Mavericks’ rebound inability yesterday with Julius Randle and I’m going back to the well tonight. Favors has pulled down at least nine rebounds in three of his last four games and has averaged 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes this season. He should play close to 30 minutes tonight if this game stays competitive, which should give him plenty of chances to grab rebounds against the worst rebounding team in the league.
Harrison Barnes Under 18.5 points (-115 at Bovada)
9:00 p.m. ET
Sticking with the Mavericks, this line seems a bit high for Harrison Barnes. He’s failed to crack the 18.5-point barrier in four of the past six games, with the lone exceptions coming against the lowly Lakers. He’ll have a much harder time today against the Utah Jazz, who rank in the top five in defensive efficiency and bottom six in pace. The Mavericks have an implied team total of just 98 points in this contest, which is roughly four points lower than their season average (102.1).
Donovan Mitchell Under four assists (-122 at BetOnline)
9:00 p.m. ET
Mitchell has had a dynamic rookie season, but he hasn’t exactly excelled at distributing the basketball. He’s averaged just 3.4 assists per game this season and has failed to crack four assists in five of the past seven games. Ricky Rubio rejoining the rotation should only hurt him in that department: Mitchell’s assist rate has decreased by 1.1 percent when sharing the court with Rubio this season. The fact that this game has the lowest total of the day at 196.5 doesn’t hurt matters either.