3 NBA Props for Wednesday: Towns Over/Under 3.5 Free Throws?
USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Karl-Anthony Towns
While we don’t have public bet percentages on specific player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of betting tickets and percentage of money in a particular game, we can find situations where the books may be undervaluing teams, and by relation, players, in certain spots.
With that in mind, here are three props from Wednesday night’s slate that are worth considering:
- Thaddeus Young over/under 12 points (@ CLE) — 7 p.m. ET
- Joe Ingles over/under 5.5 assists (@ OKC) — 8 p.m. ET
- Karl-Anthony Towns over/under 3.5 free throws made (@ HOU) — 10:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 18. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Pacers F Thaddeus Young Under 12 Points at Cavaliers (-130)
7 p.m. ET | TNT
Young had just a 7.4% usage rate in Game 1, getting off four shots and scoring only seven points in 31:19 of playing time. Young has scored fewer than 12 points in 14 of 24 games (58.3%) since the All-Star Break, averaging 10.9 over that span. He also averages 1.4 fewer points per game on the road than at home this season. The majority of spread tickets are on the Pacers in this game, but the majority of spread money is on the Cavs, an indication that the market may be overreacting to Indiana’s Game 1 victory. Not only that, but the majority of over/under tickets have come in on the over, yet the majority of money is on the under. And if you think Cleveland wins tonight, that’s another reason to bet the under here, as Young averages 2.3 fewer points per game in losses than he does in wins.
Jazz SF Joe Ingles Under 5.5 Assists vs. Thunder (-114)
8 p.m. ET | NBATV
Ingles’ assists numbers spiked to 7.3 per game in April (he’s at 4.8 for the season), but it also coincided with Ricky Rubio not being at full health. Ingles has just two assists across 59:34 over Utah’ past two games, and he didn’t get anywhere near as many touches as usual in Game 1 against Oklahoma City. Ingles needed 51.6 touches in 31.4 minutes per game during the regular season to average 4.8 assists. In Game 1, he played 31.9 minutes but got only 40 touches — half as many as Rubio. There’s less spread money than tickets on Utah and more money than tickets on the under, which indicates the books could be overvaluing Utah here. That, combined with Ingles’ reduced touches, makes the under the play.
Timberwolves C Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 Free Throws Made at Rockets (-120)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Towns had a miserable Game 1, scoring only eight points on 3-of-9 shooting. But we’ve seen this time and time again: When an alpha-dog player isn’t aggressive in a key spot, he comes back hyper-aggressive the next time out. If Towns is looking for his offense more in this game, he should have no problem getting to four free-throw makes. He averages 4.2 per game on the season and had a chance to hit four last game but missed two, which is out of character for the 83.8% career shooter. Add that to the fact that the Timberwolves may be undervalued from a scoring perspective — the majority of money is on Minnesota despite the majority of tickets being on Houston — and Towns bouncing back with four-plus makes from the stripe seems like a no-brainer.
Pictured above: Karl-Anthony Towns
Photo credit: Troy Taormina — USA TODAY Sports