NBA Betting, DFS Angles for Every Tuesday Game
Tuesday features an Eastern Conference slugfest between the Celtics and Raptors. Kyrie Irving is set to return to the lineup for Boston, but he should be thanking his lucky stars that he’s still Boston’s starting PG …
Kyrie Irving: 1 in 429 career starts
Terry Rozier: 1 in 1 career start
— Chris Forsberg (@ESPNForsberg) February 1, 2018
It’s official: There’s a PG controversy brewing in Boston. Kinda like that QB controversy in Philly.
Anywho, a battle of stars is also taking place out west, as the Thunder visit Golden State as double-digit dogs. Then you have LeBron and the Cavs, who were just neutered by the Rockets on their home court on national TV. Maybe they’ll cover in Orlando, but don’t get your hopes up too high.
Find out all you need to know as we break down the entire eight-game slate. — Mark Gallant
All info as of Tuesday morning. Check back during the day for and keep an eye on our Twitter handle for any updates.
If there’s a specific matchup you want to jump to, click the quick links below. For live spreads and bet percentages, check out this page. Follow the latest injury info on our industry-leading news feed. To get access to our premium betting tools, subscribe here.
BOSTON CELTICS AT TORONTO RAPTORS (-5) | O/U: 208
7:30 p.m. ET
What the metrics say: These teams first met this season in mid-November, and it was a 95-94 slugfest that Boston took at home. Both teams struggled to score …
What I’m watching for: Are the Raptors ready? Toronto is two games back of Boston and the Celtics need a win to guarantee they can’t lose the tiebreaker in the four-game season series. Keep an eye out for Al Horford in this one. He was blistering in the first matchup and the Raptors’ defensive scheme isn’t built to handle him well. — Matt Moore
DFS nugget: Jonas Valanciunas has been a monster over his past 10 games, exceeding salary-based expectations by an average of 8.92 points on DraftKings. His average of 1.38 fantasy points per minute is the top mark among centers on today’s slate, and his $5,500 salary on DraftKings results in a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He also has historically been a much better player at home, averaging more than three additional fantasy points per game. — Matt LaMarca
Trend No. 1 to know: Under Stevens, the Celtics are 63-45-2 (58.3%) ATS in the regular season against an opponent with a 60 percent or better winning percentage. They’re 34-19-1 (64.2%) ATS on the road in these situations. — John Ewing
Trend No. 2 to know: For whatever reason, the Air Canada Centre has been the Celtics’ kryptonite under Stevens: They’re 1-7 straight-up and 3-5 against the spread in Toronto. — Evan Abrams
MILWAUKEE BUCKS AT NEW YORK KNICKS (-1) | O/U: 207.5
7:30 p.m. ET
What I’m watching for: These games, against opponents the Bucks should beat, will be vital for Milwaukee’s playoff push and seeding. Eric Bledsoe shot 40 percent from the field and 30 percent from three in January. He’s been better in the past few games, but if he slides, the Bucks are in trouble.
Both of these teams are in “watch the inactives for funky trade stuff” territory. — Matt Moore
What the metrics say: The Bucks have played seven games since firing head coach Jason Kidd on Jan. 22. During that stretch, they’ve gone 6-1 and have posted the league’s second-best Net Rating of +11.3. They’ve done it mostly because of their defense, which ranks first with a 99.0 Defensive Rating during that span. While that number will likely regress, they could see sustained success on that area of the floor. They have as much defensive talent as nearly any team in the league and now that they’ve gone away from their intense, switch-heavy, aggressive scheme, they could be an elite unit in that regard. They beat these Knicks just two games ago, allowing only 94.7 points/100 in the process. — Bryan Mears
DFS nugget: Enes Kanter disappointed in his most recent outing, but prior to that he had exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games. The Bucks represent a tremendous matchup for Kanter (+4.95 Opponent Plus/Minus on FanDuel), and his current $6,900 salary results in a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. — Matt LaMarca
Trend No. 2 to know: In the Knicks’ first 20 home games this season, they were 15-5 ATS, covering the spread by an average of 7.4 PPG. In their six home games since, they’re 1-5 SU and ATS. Their -3.2 net rating in the Garden since Christmas Day ranks 27th in the NBA. — Evan Abrams
WASHINGTON WIZARDS AT PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (-6.5) | O/U: 212.5
8 p.m. ET | TNT
What I’m watching for: When does this get awkward without John Wall? The Wizards have been red hot and undefeated since Wall’s injury. There continue to be murmurs about Bradley Beal and Wall’s relationship, but Beal also made fun of the idea they’re better without Wall, while also acknowledging they’re moving the ball more. (“Everybody eats.”) Either way, the Wizards are finding the best version of themselves without their star PG. A win over the 76ers, who have lost three of four coming off a hot streak, would only further that narrative.
Watch out for how the Wizards double Joel Embiid. They’re one of the worst teams in the league at forcing turnovers from the post and defending scoring opportunities. Embiid might feast in this game. — Matt Moore
DFS nugget: Beal has rightfully gotten most of the attention since the injury to Wall, but Markieff Morris has been just as big of a beneficiary. He’s played at least 29 minutes in each of his last six games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of them. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.08 on FanDuel in today’s contest against the 76ers. — Matt LaMarca
What the metrics say: These teams split their first two meetings, the latter of which did not include Wall. In the Wizards’ first game with him, they won and scored efficiently. In the second, they lost on the road and really struggled offensively, posting an Offensive Rating of only 100.9. They had an eFG% of just 45.5 percent, and Beal was oddly quiet, taking only 12 shots and posting a usage rate of 21.3 percent. Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre led the team in usage. Beal has come on of late and the Wiz have now won five straight. That said, they’re a much better team at home and they’re playing on a back-to-back. If Robert Covington and Ben Simmons can bottle up Beal again on the wing, the Wizards could be due for a let-down game. — Bryan Mears
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER AT GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (-10) | O/U: 231
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
What the metrics say: The Thunder rolled the Warriors 108-91 in their first meeting at home. They bottled up the Golden State offense better than any team has over the past couple of years, holding them to just 90.1 points/100 and an uncharacteristic 48.1 percent eFG%. The Thunder’s length does pose an interesting problem for the Warriors if healthy, but unfortunately that isn’t the case. Andre Roberson is now out for the year, and he had a DPOY-like impact this season before getting injured. When he’s been on the floor, they’ve allowed a 101.7 Defensive Rating versus a 113.5 mark with him off. The Warriors will be looking for revenge at home, in primetime, against a hurting defense and a team that has lost four straight. I’m on the Dubs here. — Bryan Mears
DFS nugget: Russell Westbrook is the most expensive player on the slate. He’s had mixed results against the Warriors over the past two seasons, but his individual success will likely come down to whether or not the Thunder can keep this game competitive: He’s averaged more than 65 FanDuel points in the three games he’s played at least 30 minutes and just 40.65 in the two he hasn’t. Given the Thunders’ defensive struggles without Roberson, he’s more risky than usual for cash games. — Matt LaMarca
What I’m watching for: Golden State has been bored out of its mind lately, resulting in lazy play and losses. They need to get to the All-Star break badly, but it being a week away may give them the motivation to finish the stretch strong. I just can’t see Golden State dropping two to Russell Westbrook, given their contempt for him.
With the Thunder’s defense in tatters, this feels like the perfect game for the Golden State’s shooters to get going.
If it’s close, keep an eye on Kerr’s late-game rotations. He played Nick Young over Andre Iguodala as “an experiment” vs. Denver and it cost him. If he goes outside the box again, it’ll show how invested they really are in beating OKC. — Matt Moore
Trend No. 1 to know: Under Kerr, the Warriors are 40-28 ATS in the regular season at home against an opponent with a winning record . — John Ewing
Trend No. 2 to know: Westbrook has played 20 total games on the road in Golden State in his career (including playoffs). He is shooting just 40.3% from the field, and the Thunder have won just six of those 20 matchups. — Evan Abrams
Trend No. 3 to know: The Warriors lost their previous matchup to Thunder. The Dubs are 36-18 (66.7%) ATS in revenge games under Kerr during regular season. — John Ewing
Quick Hits on the Rest of the Slate
CLEVELAND CAVALIERS (-7) AT ORLANDO MAGIC | O/U: 225.5
Sharp money update: After opening Cavs -7 at Bookmaker.eu, the majority of spread tickets are laying the points with Cleveland, yet sharp money has consistently bought back Orlando at +7.
Not only have sharp bettors taken a position on the spread, but professional money has also pounded the total. Behind a Steam Move at CRIS, a sportsbook that willingly accepts high-limit wagers from professional bettors, the total has climbed five full points since opening at 221 across the market. — PJ Walsh
DFS nugget: This game could be the most appealing game on the slate for DFS purposes. Both of these teams have been horrendous defensively of late, and the Magic are going to be pretty shorthanded. Mario Hezonja in particular should be popular: He’s averaged more than 30 fantasy points per game when starting for the injured Aaron Gordon. — Matt LaMarca
Trend No. 1 to know: Cleveland got rolled 120-88 at home by Houston on Saturday. Since LeBron returned, the Cavs are 9-9 SU and 5-13 ATS following a loss by 20 or more points. — John Ewing
Trend No. 2 to know: This season, the Cavs are 4-19-1 ATS (17.4%) vs. teams that are under .500, failing to cover 15 of their past 17 in the spot. — Evan Abrams
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES AT ATLANTA HAWKS (-3) | O/U: 203.5
Sharp money update: While spread tickets are relatively balanced in this matchup, 66 percent of dollars wagered have taken Atlanta. In fact, our Bet Signals triggered a Steam Move at Buckeye, indicating that sharp money is responsible for the move from Hawks -2 up to -3. — PJ Walsh
DFS nugget: Marc Gasol has led the Grizzlies in usage in games without Mike Conley, Tyreke Evans, and Chandler Parsons, resulting in an average of more than 40 fantasy points per game. The Hawks also represent one of the best matchups for centers, which gives him plenty of appeal on today’s slate. — Matt LaMarca
Trend to know: Buy-low opportunity on the Grizzlies: Memphis (18-34) has lost three straight and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. Bad teams (win percentage of 35% or less) on a losing streak during a road trip are 578-472-17 (55%) ATS since 2005. — John Ewing
HOUSTON ROCKETS (-10.5) AT BROOKLYN NETS | O/U: 216.5
Sharp money update: Wiseguys are hitting the Nets and the over in Rockets-Nets. Check out this article for more info. — Danny Donahue
Trend to know: The Rockets embarrassed the Cavs 120-88 on Saturday. Teams that won their previous game by 30 or more points and then are favored against an opponent with a losing record are 85-99-4 ATS (46.2%) since 2005. — John Ewing
PHOENIX SUNS AT LOS ANGELES LAKERS (-8) | O/U: 217.5
DFS nugget: The Lakers appear to be showcasing Julius Randle for a trade, playing him at least 32 minutes in back-to-back games. His average of 1.23 fantasy points per minute over the past month makes him really attractive against an awful Suns’ defense. — Matt LaMarca
Trend to know: Over the past two seasons, two teams that shoot less than 35% from 3 have faced each other a total of a 180 times. The under is 97-78-5 (55.4%) in those games. — Evan Abrams
Top photo via Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports