The underdogs keep winning.
Just days after the Golden Knights (+135) stunned the hockey world by taking Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final, the Knicks (+160) followed suit Thursday night, stealing Game 1 of the NBA Finals in San Antonio.
For the first time since 2004, underdogs have opened both the Stanley Cup Final and NBA Finals with outright Game 1 victories.
The results become even more surprising when viewed through recent history. Since the NHL lockout in 2005, Game 1 underdogs in the Stanley Cup Final had gone just 3-18 straight up entering this season. In the NBA Finals over that same span, Game 1 underdogs were only 4-18 straight up.
The Knicks added another historic wrinkle to that trend.
One year after the Pacers won Game 1 of the 2025 NBA Finals as 10-point underdogs against Oklahoma City, New York followed with its own upset as a 5-point dog against San Antonio. It marks the first time since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 that underdogs have won Game 1 of the NBA Finals outright in consecutive seasons.
Now comes the bigger question: what happens in Game 2?
Twelve Straight
The Knicks are no longer just winning. They are producing one of the most dominant stretches the league has ever seen. New York has now won 12 consecutive playoff games, joining some elite company.
The 2017 Warriors won 15 straight playoff games on their way to a championship, finishing 31-2 straight up and 22-8-3 ATS during that stretch. The 1999 Spurs won 12 straight, going 14-1 straight up and eventually winning the title.
The 2026 Knicks now sit at 12-0 straight up and 11-1 ATS during their streak. What's even more impressive is how they've done it.
The 2017 Warriors were never underdogs during their run. The 1999 Spurs were underdogs four times and won all four outright. The 2026 Knicks have already been underdogs three times during their streak and have won all three games outright.
The dominance has extended beyond wins and losses.
Over their last 12 games, New York has outscored opponents by 272 points, which is 11 points better than any 12-game stretch in NBA history. The previous record belonged to the Knicks themselves, who entered the Finals at +261 over their prior 12 games.
Bounce Back Kings
If there is one reason the betting market continues to respect San Antonio, it is what the Spurs have done after losses all season. The Spurs are 3-0 straight up and 3-0 ATS when trailing in a playoff series this year. They responded to a deficit against Minnesota with a 38-point win. They answered a loss to Oklahoma City with victories by 21 and 27 points.
More broadly, San Antonio is 22-6 straight up following a loss this season and an incredible 16-3 straight up at home in that spot.
Since mid-January, the Spurs are 14-1 straight up after a defeat.
The Comeback Factor
The Knicks didn't just win Game 1. They did it after trailing by double digits. New York is now 3-1 straight up in the playoffs when trailing by 10 or more points at any point in the game. Historically, teams that complete such a comeback often struggle in the next contest. The Knicks haven't.
When New York has erased a 10-point deficit to win this season, they are 13-4 straight up and 11-6 ATS in the following game. Since January 1, those teams are 9-1 straight up and 8-2 ATS in their next outing. There's also recent Finals history working against San Antonio.
Over the last 20 years, only three teams have blown a double-digit lead in Game 1 of the NBA Finals and then been favored in Game 2. The 2025 Thunder responded by beating Indiana by 16 points. The 2022 Warriors answered with a 19-point win over Boston.
Now the Spurs will try to follow that path.
Historically, Home Teams Bounce Back
Losing Game 1 of the NBA Finals at home is rare. Losing Game 1 at home and then losing Game 2 is even rarer.
Over the last 30 years, the last five teams to lose Game 1 of the Finals at home went 5-0 straight up in Game 2 and 3-1-1 ATS. The last team to fail? The 1995 Magic against the Rockets. Since the merger, home teams that lose Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 9-2 straight up and 6-4-1 ATS in Game 2.
The only outright losers were the 1995 Magic and 1993 Suns.
More broadly, there have been 27 Finals games over the last 20 years in which a team lost a Finals game and then returned home as the same favorite or a larger favorite in the next contest. Those teams went 18-9 straight up and 14-13 ATS.
Was It Just Bad Shooting?
One of the biggest talking points from Game 1 was San Antonio's inability to make shots. The Spurs finished just 32-for-89 from the field, 11-for-43 from three-point range, and shot only 36% overall.
Since the merger, the 2026 Spurs have become just the sixth team to close as a favorite in Game 2 of the NBA Finals after shooting below 40% from the field in Game 1.
Those teams have gone just 3-2 straight up and 2-2-1 ATS in Game 2.
Most recently, Oklahoma City rebounded from a poor shooting performance against Indiana in last year's Finals and won Game 2 by 16 points.
Underdog Playoffs
So far in this year's NBA Playoffs — forgetting the Play-In Tournament — underdogs are 32-49 SU (39.5%).
In 2003, we switched to a 7-game series in the opening round. Since then, the 32 outright wins by underdogs this season are tied for the 2nd-most in any season. Last year, 'dogs went 32-52 SU, and in 2014 they went 39-50 SU, almost 44% mark.
Since the merger, here are the best seasons for underdogs in the playoffs:
- 1981: 24-28 SU (46.2%)
- 2014: 39-50 SU (43.8%)
- 1995: 29-44 SU (39.7%)
- 2026: 32-49 SU (39.5%)
- 1989: 23-36 SU (39%)
- 1982: 18-29 SU (38.3%)
- 2025: 32-52 SU (38.1%)
The Rest Advantage Is Gone
Much of the conversation leading up to Game 1 centered on rest. The Knicks entered the Finals with nine days off. The Spurs had only four days after their Game 7 victory over Oklahoma City.
New York won. Now what?
Since 2002, teams with that exact rest profile entering a playoff series — nine or more days off versus four or fewer — are just 6-4 straight up and 4-6 ATS in the next game after winning the opener. More importantly, those teams are 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS when listed as underdogs in that next game.
The previous examples came from the 2023 Sixers against Boston and the 2013 Spurs against Miami. Both lost badly in Game 2.
Philadelphia lost by 34. San Antonio lost by 19.
The Market Keeps Doubting New York
Before Game 1, only six teams since the merger had entered the NBA Playoffs at 20-1 or longer odds to win the championship and eventually reached the NBA Finals. Only two of those teams have now won Game 1 outright.
The 2025 Pacers and the 2026 Knicks.
Indiana ultimately lost to Oklahoma City in seven games. We'll now see if New York can build on its opening statement.
There is another trend working in the Knicks' favor. New York became just the fourth team since 1990 to be favored in each of the first three playoff rounds before becoming an underdog in the NBA Finals. The previous three teams were the 2016 Cavaliers, 2012 Heat and 2008 Celtics.
All three won the championship.
The 2008 Celtics were previously the only team in that group to also win Game 1 of the Finals. Now the Knicks join them.
Mike Brown's Historic ATS Resume
The spotlight has naturally fallen on the players, but Mike Brown's playoff track record deserves attention as well. Following Game 1, Brown improved to 66-46-2 ATS in his playoff coaching career. Among the 53 head coaches with at least 50 playoff games since the merger, Brown's 58.9% ATS winning percentage ranks second all-time. Only Larry Bird has been better at 59.6%.
Brown is now 16-7 ATS in Game 1s during his playoff coaching career. More impressively, he has consistently won in one of the most difficult spots in basketball: on the road following a playoff victory. Brown is 14-13 straight up on the road in the playoffs after a straight-up win.
Over the last 20 years, only seven coaches with at least 10 opportunities have managed a winning record in that spot:
- Tyronn Lue: 16-7 SU
- Gregg Popovich: 29-24 SU
- Steve Kerr: 25-20 SU
- Mike Budenholzer: 14-10 SU
- Mark Daigneault: 9-7 SU
- Joe Mazzulla: 8-6 SU
- Mike Brown: 14-13 SU
The Knicks have been proving doubters wrong all postseason.
Saturday night will present their latest challenge. The Spurs have been dominant after losses; history favors home teams coming off a Game 1 Finals defeat, and San Antonio remains favored despite New York's historic run.
The question now is whether the Knicks can do what they've done for the last month: ignore the trends and keep winning.
The Finals Cash Streak
June 12th, 2023 — the last time a favorite won an NBA Finals game and didn't cover the spread. Nuggets -8 against the Heat in Game 5 of the NBA Finals won by five points, and clinched the title. Since then, we've seen two-plus series and 13 finals games pass with the underdog winning outright or the favorite covering the spread.
Dating back to Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals, 69 total NBA Finals games have been played — the favorite has covered (or pushed) or the underdog won outright in 66 of them.
The three outliers:
- 2023 Nuggets/Heat Game 6
- 2020 Lakers/Heat Game 4
- 2018 Warriors/Cavs Game 1
