Warriors vs Rockets Odds, Pick, Prediction Today | NBA Betting Preview (Thursday, April 4)

Here's everything you need to know about Warriors vs. Rockets on Thursday, April 4 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today's game.

The Warriors are flying, surviving a tough test in a win over the Mavericks on Tuesday night and entering play on Thursday off the back of five straight wins.

We were saying the same about the Rockets just a few days ago, but back-to-back losses have already led many to question just how long this team can keep up the good play without Alperen Sengun.

What happens when these two collide on Thursday? Let's get into the matchup and find a way to bet this one.

Pick: Under 225

Pick: Under 225

It's been quite the run for the Warriors, who defeated the strength-of-schedule allegations with some big wins over the Heat, Magic and Mavericks to earn themselves a nice winning streak over the last week or so.

It's been the defense which has shined through the most, ranking fifth in the NBA over the last two weeks, though in recent games the offense has gotten unseasonably hot with nearly 44% of the team's shots falling from outside.

We know the Warriors rely heavily on the 3, ranking inside the top 10 in both frequency and accuracy from beyond the arc according to Cleaning the Glass, so that's certainly something worth noting.

With that being said, Dallas has not defended the arc with success all season long and after a month of excellence in that area things have gotten significantly worse for the Spurs, so it's worth taking that two-game stretch with a grain of salt.

While Golden State's own 3-point defense has been acceptable, it's made its mark at the rim and in the mid-range over this two-week stretch. That would seem to come in handy against one of the happiest teams in the league when it comes to shooting within four feet, but since losing Alperen Sengun to injury this Rockets team has become one which is content to win or lose from the 3-point line.

That will call into question the Warriors' recent numbers against the 3, though they've run into some great shooting sides and do rank sixth against the 3-ball for the season.

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The injury to Sengun seemed to put a damper on the Rockets' season, but instead this team took it as an opportunity to let the rest of the team shine. As we covered above, Houston has opted to let its guards carry the load offensively, and this offense has taken off as a result with an offensive rating which ranks just outside the top-5 in the league over the last two weeks.

On the flip side, while Houston's excellent frontcourt defense has suffered, it still owns the best 3-point defense in the NBA and has produced roughly the same results over the past two weeks to at least keep this unit above average. Things have begun to go backwards over the last two games in losses to the Mavericks and Timberwolves, however, with both sides shooting 51.1% and 42.3% from outside, respectively.

The burning question here is whether or not the Warriors' hot shooting can continue against such a strong 3-point defense, and whether or not those games were simply outliers. At least one of those two games was played on the road, and it's worth pointing out that Golden State's 3-point shooting has fallen by a full percentage point away from the Bay Area while the Rockets' defense has been nearly six points better per 100 possessions.

The defense has come and went for the Rockets over the past couple of weeks, but over the last five games we've more or less come to expect a rather average scoring output from the hosts. That leads me to believe it'll take a mammoth showing from the Warriors offense here to win this one, something that hasn't exactly taken place often over the course of this winning streak.

Against a perimeter defense which remains intact and remains excellent, and in a spot on the road where shots haven't always fallen, I think this will be a little bit of an adventure for the Warriors. With that being said though, there's been a noticeable dip in offensive production for the Rockets in recent games which leads me to the total here.

I do like the points with the Rockets at home, but I'd rather short what I see as a gaudy number for how well both of these defenses match up with their opponents. I'll play it down to 225.

Pick: Under 225

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