Hawks vs. Heat Odds & Picks: Why Gabe Vincent Will Step Up in Game 5 for Shorthanded Miami (Tuesday, April 26)

Editor's Note: Jimmy Butler (right knee inflammation) has been ruled out for the Heat for Game 5.

Hawks vs. Heat Odds

The Heat host the Hawks on Tuesday night as they look to advance to the second round after taking a 3-1 series lead with a dominant Game 4 win on the road.

The Heat will be without starting point guard and key offseason acquisition Kyle Lowry in this game like they were in Game 4, but their defense has continued to shine in his absence.

They have held the elite Hawks offense in check, as Trae Young has had two of his worst performances all season in the first four games of this series. In 76 regular-season games, Young scored at least 13 points all but one time, but in four playoff games, he has scored nine or fewer points twice.

Will Young and the Hawks figure out the Heat’s defense on the road and keep their season alive, or will the Heat end their season with a gentleman’s sweep? Let’s break down the matchup below.

Can Young and the Hawks Figure It Out?

If the Hawks cover or pull the upset in Game 5, they need Young to thrive as a facilitator and scorer while shooters step up around him.

The Hawks were an elite offensive team in the regular season and a poor defensive team, and as their offense has stagnated against the Heat, they find themselves on the brink of elimination.

The Hawks led the NBA in half-court offensive rating (101.1) in the regular season (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass), but in the playoffs, they rank 15th out of the 16 playoff teams with a 92.1 half-court offensive rating. This would have ranked 25th in the regular season, just ahead of the Knicks.

As discussed, Young has had two of his lowest-scoring games of the year so far in this series, but he has also been inefficient as a facilitator. After averaging 9.7 assists and 4.0 turnovers per game in the regular season, he has averaged six assists and six turnovers per game in this series.

Young’s struggles as a scorer and passer illustrate how hard it has been for him to get into the paint against the Heat’s stout versatile defense led by Bam Adebayo. That's why he has attempted more 3s (33) than 2s while shooting just 21.2% from beyond the arc.

The Hawks defense that finished 26th in defensive rating still has its flaws, so they need to have their perimeter shooters like Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kevin Huerter step up against the Heat to win in a shootout.

Not only has Young struggled from beyond the arc, but Bogdanovic and Huerter are shooting 23.6% and 27.2% on 3s, respectively, so far in this series.

The Hawks need them, along with Young, to have a breakthrough performance in Game 5.

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Butler and the Heat Are Thriving

If the Heat win and cover in Game 5, it will be because they continue to play strong defense on Young and Jimmy Butler continues to lead the offense while they play with quality spacing and ball movement.

Butler has been spectacular overall this series while averaging 30.5 points per game on a very efficient 131.2 points per 100 shots (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass).

When the Heat are at their best, they shut down the paint defensively (they led the NBA with just 41.0 points in the paint allowed per game) their opponents miss jump-shots with long rebounds that kickstart their transition offense going down the other end.

Cutting off Young’s drives has been key, but playing with quality spacing furthers their advantages as they have shooters and smart players who make timely cuts.

It’s key that the Heat continue to play with quality ball movement as they, and Butler, are much better when avoiding isolation basketball. Ball movement will continue to be key without Lowry available — the Heat will have only one true point guard available in Gabe Vincent.

Ball movement and spacing have been key against a poor Hawks defense that will give away points at times with poor rotations.

Hawks-Heat Pick

With Butler ruled out, the Heat will likely play at a faster pace with a higher percentage of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Expect shooters like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson to pick up the workload. Victor Oladipo, who hadn't played until Game 4 of this series, will be a wildcard and could have a breakout game.

If you want to target the Heat in this spot, I like the idea of targeting them on the live moneyline as there will be more variance than normal with them shooting more 3s in this game. The Heat have the defensive personnel like Caleb Martin to step in and play Butler's defensive role (although he can't produce similarly on offense).

I love over 9.5 on Gabe Vincent's point total at FanDuel. Vincent will start at point guard with Lowry out, and with Butler also out, who serves as a de-facto point guard for the Heat quite often, he should see an uptick in Usage. Vincent is a capable shooter who shot 36.8% on 3s this season, and also an excellent on-ball defender. He will be needed in the rotation to keep the defensive pressure on Young with both Lowry and Butler out.

Pick:Gabe Vincent Over 9.5 Points