The Houston Rockets (37-21) and Miami Heat (31-29) will square off in the NBA this afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Rockets are 3.5-point favorites over the Heat on the spread (Rockets -3.5), with the over/under set at 225.5 total points. Houston is a -148 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Miami is +124 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Rockets vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, February 28.
Rockets vs Heat Prediction
- Rockets vs Heat pick: Heat +3.5 (-110)
My Heat vs. Rockets best bet is on Miami to cover the spread at +3.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Rockets vs Heat Odds
| Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 225.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
Rockets vs Heat NBA Preview
The Rockets have struggled with good teams all year, but that’s mostly in the West.
When Houston is a road favorite this season, the Rockets are actually 6-3 SU and ATS.
Houston is 16-5 SU and 12-9 ATS against Eastern Conference teams this season.
Norman Powell is out for the Heat, and that’s a big deal.
I have the Heat two points lower on power rating without Powell. Miami is 4-7 SU and ATS without Powell this season.
However, this is a nightmare spot for the Rockets.
Remember last weekend when the Cavaliers got thumped by the Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander? Then, the Nuggets lost to the Warriors without Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Kristaps Porzingis?
Those teams were on a 3rd-game-in-4-nights spot with a matinee start time.
Guess what Houston is doing today? The Rockets are playing on a 3rd-game-in-4-nights spot with a matinee start time.
Since 2003, teams in this spot, on the road for a matinee start on a 3rd-in-4 spot are 21-52 (48%) and 28-45 ATS. Favorites in this spot are 10-13, 7-15 ATS.
It’s simply a no-good, terrible spot for teams.
Rockets vs Heat Predictions, Betting Analysis
Heat +3.5
The Heat are shorthanded, but so were the Warriors.
History says this is a spot where you need to back Miami if the Heat have a pulse — and they do have a pulse at this time.
The Rockets' offense is their weak-spot, and Miami has a top-five halfcourt defense.
When the Rockets run up against teams that can match their defensive energy, they struggle.
Miami’s pace doesn’t actually help them offensively, but it wears out the opponent and drags them into halfcourt settings.
I’ll back the Heat to cash in on the terrible rest spot vs. the Rockets this afternoon.
Under 225.5
I lean towards the Under, but only make this about one point under the market.
Houston and Miami are both better defensive teams than offensive teams.
Since Steven Adams went down, Houston has struggled on the offensive glass, which means Miami can play its smaller lineups.
Expect an ugly, sluggish game where the Rockets look discombobulated.
Rockets vs Heat Best Bets
- Heat +3.5
- Under 225.5 (Lean)
Spread
My Heat vs. Rockets betting prediction is on Miami to cover the spread.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline in this afternoon's matchup.
Over/Under
I also lean toward the Under in this spot. However, Miami +3.5 is my best bet.
