NBA Odds & Pick for Jazz vs. Heat: How Lineup Alters Best Bet in Miami (November 6)

Jazz vs. Heat Odds

The Utah Jazz face the Heat in Miami on Saturday night in what should be an exciting matchup between arguably the two best teams in the NBA so far this season.

The Jazz are tied with the Warriors at 7-1 for the best record in the NBA. They have won three straight games and are coming off of a dominant 116-98 win over the Hawks on Thursday (while doing so without Donovan Mitchell). The Jazz lead the NBA with a +13.8 Point Differential excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass.

The Heat rank second in the league with a +12.0 Point Differential, but they are looking to bounce back after an embarrassing 78-95 loss to the Celtics on Thursday after a nightmare second quarter.

Unfortunately for the Heat, Kyle Lowry injured his ankle and is questionable, while Donovan Mitchell also is questionable for the Jazz with an ankle injury. With two key players’ statuses in question, we break down how to bet this matchup below.

Utah Needs Perimeter Shooting To Get Going

Royce O’Neale (ankle) is also questionable while Rudy Gay (heel) remains out.

While, sure, if a team shoots the 3 well in today’s NBA, they will usually win, but given the shot profile of the Jazz offense and Heat defense, this is the biggest key in today’s game. The Jazz are taking the second most 3s (45.1% of their shots, per Cleaning The Glass) in the league, while the Heat’s defense is allowing opponents to shoot the most 3s (45.0% of opponent shots).

So far this season, the Jazz have underachieved from beyond the arc as they have made just 33.7% of their 3s, ranking 20th in the NBA (excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass).

Donovan Mitchell (33%), Bojan Bogdanovic (32%), and Jordan Clarkson (23%) are all shooting well below their expected percentages, and once they regress to the mean, this Utah offense that has been the second-most efficient unit in the league (Offensive Rating of 114.9 excluding garbage time, per Cleaning The Glass) will ascend to another level.

Lowry Proving Important To Heat

KZ Okpala (ankle) is also questionable in addition to Lowry, and Max Strus (knee) is out for a couple weeks. Victor Oladipo (quadriceps) remains out indefinitely.

Lowry’s addition to the Heat has been impactful on both ends of the court. Defensively, he has been the Heat’s missing link as a point-of-attack defender and as someone who can switch and guard up a few positions (which is even more valuable with the offseason addition of P.J. Tucker).

Offensively, he is a pure point guard who can also score, and his quick hit-ahead passes have helped the Heat get easier buckets in transition when Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo have shown off their athleticism in the open court. While the Heat rank seventh in Offensive Rating at 111.6, they rank just 19th in Halfcourt Offensive Rating at 90.6 despite Tyler Herro's early season breakout.

In the Heat’s loss on Thursday, the Celtics did a tremendous job of limiting the Heat’s transition opportunities on those hit-ahead passes, and the Heat offense completely stalled in the halfcourt. If Lowry can’t play, the Heat’s ability to get into transition and also score in the halfcourt will be hindered.

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Jazz-Heat Pick

The value in this game will depend on the health of Mitchell and Lowry. If both play or neither play, I would lean toward betting the Jazz as they are easily the better functioning offense in the halfcourt right now with Mike Conley at the helm.

The Heat's defense has gotten the lion's share of attention this year as they have the second-best Defensive Rating (99.6) in the league, but the Jazz are on their heels with the third-best Defensive Rating (101.2). This shapes up as an intriguing defensive matchup on both ends as two of the league's premier defenders, Rudy Gobert and Adebayo, anchor their defenses.

If Lowry plays but Mitchell is out, I would expect the Heat to win, but not with enough certainty to bet them as roughly three-point favorites. Instead, bet the under at 211.5 down to 209 in this scenario (or if you can live bet, get the Heat as live underdogs).

Finally, if Mitchell plays and Lowry is out, bet the Jazz to win with value down to -2.5. I recommend betting one unit if betting on the Jazz or one half unit if betting on the under.

Pick: Jazz +120