The NBA playoffs are finally here, and we are diving deep into the 3-vs-6 matchup in the Eastern Conference. The New York Knicks enter as heavy -275 series favorites, while the Atlanta Hawks sit at +220.
Below, Matt Moore and Brandon Anderson break down where the value lies and why this series might be more about math than matchups.
Knicks vs Hawks Opening Odds
Series Winner: Knicks -275 | Hawks +220
Series Spread: Knicks -1.5 (-115) | Hawks +1.5 (-105)
Total Games: Over/Under 5.5 (-110)
Odds provided by DraftKings.
Knicks vs Hawks Series Preview, Predictions
Matt Moore: New York Knicks Series Moneyline (-275)
My Liam Neeson intro for this series is essentially: "Please help me. I don't know what to do." I am facing a genuine crisis between my raw power ratings and my basketball brain.
From a purely objective standpoint, my model indicates that the Knicks are overvalued by the market. Even after I manually adjusted the inputs to give New York a 75% win probability, the fair price still settles at roughly Knicks -177 / Hawks +177.
Technically, that leaves 60 cents of value on the Hawks, but my basketball analysis tells me that Atlanta isn't going to win this series.
I hate this matchup for the Hawks. When you dig into the technical aspects of how these two teams interact, the Hawks are in a nightmare scenario.
I spent time watching every pick-and-roll possession between these two squads, and Atlanta’s defensive scheme is tailor-made to be exploited by New York.
Because the Hawks cannot switch against Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, or OG Anunoby, they are forced to put two on the ball. This consistently leaves the pocket pass open to the short-roller.
In past matchups, this has resulted in Mitchell Robinson and KAT catching the ball and dunking over small defenders or hitting uncontested short jumpers repeatedly.
Atlanta has gone to a small-ball identity lately, and while it helped them against bad teams, it won't work here.
The Hawks' late-season surge is 70% fake; they are 17-2 against tanking teams but just 3-4 against real teams. They allow the fifth-highest rate at the rim and rely on opponents missing threes.
The Knicks, conversely, are the fourth-best three-point shooting team in the NBA.
I have a massive amount of confidence in the Knicks' offensive floor. I am going to ignore the technical value on the 'dog and pay the Knicks tax at -275. I'll also be smashing KAT and Mitchell Robinson points/rebounds overs in Game 1.
Brandon Anderson: Knicks in 6 (+450), Knicks in 7 (+400), Hawks in 6 (+800)
My analysis starts with one main trend: the Knicks do not take care of teams quickly. They are an elite, disciplined squad, but they aren't built to hammer opponents into a sweep.
In fact, the Knicks have played six straight playoff series that lasted at least six games. They play a style that keeps games close and allows variance to linger, which makes the "Over 5.5 Games" market very attractive.
However, I’m not interested in paying the -150 juice for that total. Instead, I’m building a Series Outcome Portfolio. By placing a half-unit on Knicks in 6 (+450), Knicks in 7 (+400), and Hawks in 6 (+800), I am effectively betting on a long series while getting an implied price of +133.
I am intentionally excluding a Hawks Game 7 victory because I don't believe Atlanta has any chance of winning a deciding game at Madison Square Garden.
This portfolio gives me coverage on the Knicks winning in a grind or the Hawks pulling a minor upset if the shots fall their way for six games.
For a more immediate edge, I am hammering Knicks first half lines in Game 1. New York owns a +12.9 net rating in home first halves, which is the best mark in the NBA. They have the home-court advantage, the experience, and a crowd that will provide an avalanche of energy against an inexperienced Atlanta roster.
I’m also looking at the three-point prop market. Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been a monster against the Knicks, averaging 11 attempts and 5 makes per game this season.
Similarly, Onyeka Okongwu is a sneaky pick-and-pop threat; he averaged 7.7 attempts from deep against New York compared to his season average of 5.2.
I’ll be playing those threes overs and targeting Karl-Anthony Towns to be the Series Rebounding Leader (-280).
