Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (February 11)

Lakers vs. Warriors Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview (February 11) article feature image

Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Lakers superstar LeBron James, smiling.

Lakers vs. Warriors Odds

Lakers Odds+110
Warriors Odds-130
Over/Under238.5 (-110/-110)
Time8:30 p.m. ET
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The new-look Los Angeles Lakers head to the Bay to take on the Golden State Warriors as they look to climb in the Western Conference standings. Can the Warriors continue their home dominance today?

Let's dive into my favorite bet for the Lakers vs the Warriors.

The New-Look Lakers Primed For Success?

The Lakers acquired a number of players at the trade deadline, namely D'Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt in a trade that sent Russell Westbrook packing. Those three are expected to play today, while Mo Bamba will have to wait due to his suspension.

As usual, Anthony Davis (foot) is Probable and LeBron James (ankle) are questionable, but they've both generally played through those injury designations. Additionally, we should see more Wenyen Gabriel with Thomas Bryant being traded to the Nuggets.

Those acquisitions are great for this Lakers team. Russell and Beasley will add much-needed shooting from the perimeter, and I expect Russell and Davis to develop a nice lob-threat combo. Yet the shooting is the most important thing for the Lakers.

Russell and Beasley are scoring 17.9 and 13.4 points per game, respectively. Russell is a better shooter, especially from 3, where he shoots 39.1% from 3 this season, compared to Beasley, who shoots 35.9% from deep and 38% on his career (both are better than the Lakers' full-season average of 34.2%). Both Beasley and Russell will get better looks when set up by LeBron than they've likely ever had in their careers. Besides being solid shooters, Russell and Beasley can create their own shots off the dribble. This team's offense can only improve.

The best LeBron lineups throughout his career have generally had more shooting and floor spacing to allow him more room on the court to orchestrate the offense while driving and kicking. I'm excited to see what this team can do.

Warriors Still Dealing With Curry Fallout 

The Warriors are once again without Steph Curry. I wrote about this at greater length in my weekly Player Props Forecast. The Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala, and they are sitting in trade deadline purgatory right now as Gary Payton II failed his physical due to a core issue, with the team needing to decide what will happen to that deal. In Curry's absence, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole see the largest spikes in their usage.

The Warriors have been excellent at home, with a 21-6 home record compared to a 7-21 record on the road. It's one of the more absurd splits this season in the league. Even without Curry, they are 6-2 at home but 8-9 overall.

The Warriors have found success even when Curry is off the floor in specific lineups. It's a small sample size, so I try not to lend it too much credence; however, when Poole, Thompson, Wiggins, and Green have been on the floor without Curry, they have a +9.7 point differential — the issue is this is only 132 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass. This is notable, but it's not necessarily reliable at this point.

The minutes with Looney have actually been problematic. With Wiggins having missed time there is not enough reliable data for those lineups; however, when Poole and Looney share the floor without Steph, the Warriors are a -7.8 and they score just 110.3 points per 100 possessions while allowing 118.1, per Cleaning the Glass. Those minutes are exploitable.

From a props angle, I am once again betting on Jordan Poole Over 3.5 Turnovers. He is averaging 4.6 per game without Curry and has exceeded 3.5 turnovers in 14 of 17 games without Curry this season. This should be a fast-paced game as both the Lakers and Warriors are third and first in Pace, respectively.

Lakers-Warriors Pick

The new-look Lakers might need a little time to gel together; however, with LeBron James at the helm, I trust this team to get on the same page rapidly. The Lakers acquired the exact type of players they needed at the deadline: creators, shooters, and depth to stretch the floor.

While the Warriors have found success at home, I think we are undervaluing just how much better the Lakers got at the trade deadline by adding quality rotation players to complement LeBron and Davis.

I'll grab the points with LA and I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.

Pick:Lakers +2.5 and Jordan Poole Over 3.5 turnovers

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