Mavericks vs 76ers Picks, Prediction Today | Monday, Feb. 5

Here's everything you need to know about Mavericks vs. 76ers on Monday, Feb. 5 — our expert prediction and betting picks for today.

After a disheartening home loss to the Milwaukee Bucks, the Dallas Mavericks will look to pull themselves up by the bootstraps and get back on track in Philadelphia — where road victories have been nearly impossible to come by.

With injuries mounting for Philly, could tonight be the night for the Mavericks? Let's get to our Mavericks vs. 76ers prediction and pick.

To put into perspective how crushing their "disheartening loss" to the Bucks was the other night, the Mavericks held a 25-point lead at home only to get steamrolled by a struggling Milwaukee team for two and a half quarters. Dallas did just about all it could, shooting 41% from 3-point range, and got 40 points out of Luka Doncic. Still, its defensive issues were too much to overcome.

Dallas now stands 25th in the NBA with a 117.9 defensive rating, but over the last 10 games things have somehow gotten even worse. Its efficiency rating on that end is a league-worst 126.1, and its problems are tenfold. The Mavericks have allowed 40.1% shooting from outside during that period in time according to Cleaning the Glass and a league-worst 74.9% field goal percentage at the rim.

While the rim defense has always been a problem for the Mavericks, taking a huge step back around the arc by nearly four points is a huge conundrum, and the fact that this team has fallen off marginally on the offensive end hasn't helped matters much.

The Mavericks should get Kyrie Irving back for this game, which will at least help this team — one which relies heavily upon outside scoring — get back to normal on offense. There's also a chance Maxi Kleber will still suit up despite a toe injury, but on the flip side Dante Exum will be out again, and Doncic is now back on the injury report with a questionable tag.

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Philly isn't exactly healthy, either. The injury to Joel Embiid is well-documented at this point, but the losses of Nic Batum and Robert Covington don't get talked about enough. On top of that, they were without Tobias Harris over the weekend against the Nets which proved to be a crushing blow.

All of those guys will be out again here, though Harris is still questionable with an illness. Assuming he is ready to go, the Sixers should at least be competitive here, though five losses in six games certainly doesn't inspire a world of confidence. It should be said that four of those losses have come on the road, and the Sixers — even with the loss to Brooklyn — are still 17-7 in Philly.

Over the last 10 games, this ninth-ranked Sixers defense has been relegated to the bottom of the league. Their stellar 3-point defense has dropped off by roughly four percentage points, and they've also struggled to defend the mid-range — another area which had been a strength for them. Like Dallas, their rim defense has been suspect all year, but with those trends it's hard to see this team being able to string together stops.

The good news for the Sixers is that their offense has remained afloat over that two-week span, and as long as Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris are out there that should continue to be the case.

This is an utterly confusing game to bet, because both defenses have been downright abysmal lately and neither team likes to play with any sort of pace. In fact, the pace rating for both has drifted even more in the last two weeks.

So, while the over was certainly a thought at first, I think this total is too high given all the factors we've discussed above. Both teams have been steady on that end despite the injuries, but they've undoubtedly been a bit worse than normal. Dallas will get Irving back, but without the sharpshooter Exum and with Kleber likely not at 100%, I don't know if Dallas will pack a strong punch here. There's also the possibility that Doncic doesn't play, on top of all of that.

The Mavericks theoretically have a great matchup against a struggling 3-point defense, but we have to point out that they've been terrible on the road this season in that area, shooting nearly four points worse from deep. Philly, on the other hand, has shot much better at home and still should have the services of Maxey and Harris to drive the ship.

Getting the Sixers as home underdogs has been a rarity over the years, given how strong they've played in these games, but that is life without Embiid. Still, I think we saw over the weekend how big of a liability that this Mavericks defense is. Even with an offensive masterclass and a 40-piece from Doncic, this team was still run out of the gym.

Shooting regression should set in on the road, and as a result I have to lean towards the Sixers at home, where they've covered in 66.7% of games this season.

Pick: 76ers +2.5 (-110)

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