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Mavericks vs. Warriors Single Game Parlay Picks: Luka Doncic Over and Third Quarter ML Bet for Game 5 (May 26)

Mavericks vs. Warriors Single Game Parlay Picks: Luka Doncic Over and Third Quarter ML Bet for Game 5 (May 26) article feature image
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Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks and Draymond Green #23 of the Golden State Warriors.

Mavericks vs. Warriors Odds

Mavericks Odds +6.5
Warriors Odds -6.5
Moneyline +235/ -190
Over/Under 215.5
Time 9 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds via WynnBET. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Golden State Warriors were unable to complete the sweep at home against the Dallas Mavericks on Tuesday night, so the Warriors will have one more opportunity to put the Mavs away as they return to the Bay. A win for the Warriors would advance them to their sixth NBA Finals over the past eight years.

The Mavericks played well last game as they got out to a quick start and trailed only 16-13 in the first quarter. Although the Warriors made a good late push and even brought back their starters, the Mavs were able to see things through.

By this point, we have all heard that no team has ever rallied from being down 3-0 to win a best-of-seven playoff series in league history. The Mavericks have a steep mountain to climb, but they have proven to be resilient in elimination games. In the three games in which the Mavericks have been fending off elimination thus far, they have outscored their opponents by 70 points.

We’re looking for some more “Luka Magic” in this Game 5 matchup. Together,  the following two plays combine for a same-game parlay with +192 odds (bet $100 to win $192).

Note: Odds for each leg of the following same-game parlay via Bet365.

Luke Doncic Over 3.5 Made 3-Point Shots (-130)

Just more than 50% of the Mavericks’ points in Game 4 came from beyond the arc, so of course this number is inflated and much higher than usual, but it is on trend with the Warriors’ regular-season stats in which they ranked 24th in opponent percentage of points from 3-point shots.

Although Golden State ranked just outside of the top five in opponent 3-point percentage, opponents were still taking a big number of attempts from deep.

This is a favorable spot for Luka Doncic, who has taken a big number of attempts from deep in every game this series. Only once has that number been in the single digits, when he went 4-of-9. The volume of attempts will once again be there for the Mavs and Doncic as we expect him to go over his set total.

If he continues with the large number of attempts and can shoot anywhere around the 35.6% he’s averaging this postseason from beyond the arc, this looks like a great play.


Warriors 3Q ML 3-Way (-145)

We all know how good the Warriors have been over the past few years coming out of halftime. Steve Kerr is one of the best in the business at making those adjustments on both sides of the ball and the Warriors have had a ton of success in the third quarter.

Through 82 games this season, the Warriors averaged 28.5 points on 48.4% shooting in the fourth quarter. This number has continued into the postseason with Golden State averaging 28.7 and shooting a fantastic 40.2% from beyond the arc.

Not only has Golden State been great offensively in the third quarter of games, the Warriors rank in the top three of opponent third quarter points per game. Taking the last game out of the equation for the Warriors, they have held Dallas to 24, 13 and 21 points, respectively, in this series before the Mavs lit it up in Game 4.

Look for that trend to continue as we see the same third-quarter dominance from the Warriors.

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