The Memphis Grizzlies (21-33) and Miami Heat (30-27) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 10.5-point favorites over the Grizzlies on the spread (Heat -10.5), with the over/under set at 237.5 total points. Miami is -500 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Memphis is +375 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into our Grizzlies vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Saturday, February 21.
Grizzlies vs Heat Prediction
- Grizzlies vs Heat pick: Over 237.5 (-110)
Our Grizzlies vs. Heat best bet is on the Over at 237.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Grizzlies vs Heat Odds
| Grizzlies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 237.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Grizzlies vs Heat NBA Preview
The Grizzlies come into this matchup with a 21-33 record and are 9-17 on the road, sitting 11th in the conference.
The Grizzlies snapped a four-game losing streak with a 123-114 win over the Jazz, but overall form remains a concern, with just three wins in their last 10 games.
Injuries continue to hurt Memphis.
Ja Morant remains out with a left elbow UCL sprain, and they’re also without Caldwell-Pope, Walter Clayton Jr., and Santi Aldama.
Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are listed as day-to-day, adding even more uncertainty to the rotation.
Meanwhile, the Heat hold a 30-27 record and they are 16-11 at home, currently sitting eighth in the conference.
The Heat have struggled with consistency and haven’t been able to string together long winning streaks.
They are coming off a strong 128-97 win over the Hawks, highlighted by Tyler Herro’s 24 points off the bench on efficient shooting.
If Miami can build off that performance, they’ll look to take advantage of a Memphis team dealing with injuries and inconsistency.
Grizzlies vs Heat Predictions, Betting Analysis
This NBA system focuses on games where struggling road teams face stronger home opponents in non-conference matchups, creating favorable conditions for high-scoring results.
When a poor road team like the Grizzlies (9-17), with a low win rate meets a winning home team (Heat, 16-11), defensive effort and intensity often dip for the visitor while the home side pushes the pace and controls offensive rhythm.
Non-conference games tend to feature looser defensive schemes and unfamiliar matchups, leading to faster scoring runs and less resistance in transition.
The data shows that when totals close above the 220 range and the line movement slightly favors the Over, the market correctly anticipates offensive efficiency rather than defensive pressure.
These situations consistently produce games where both teams exceed expectations, with the stronger home team dictating tempo and the weaker visitor contributing enough to push the total past the number.
Pick: Over 237.5 (-110)
Spread
We are not betting on the spread tonight.
Moneyline
We are also steering clear of the moneyline market.
Over/Under
Our Heat vs. Grizzlies betting prediction is on the Over at 237.5 total points.
Heat vs Grizzlies Betting Trends
