Moore: Miami’s Zone Defense Can’t Stop the Dominant Bucks

Moore: Miami’s Zone Defense Can’t Stop the Dominant Bucks article feature image
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USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34), Heat guard Dwyane Wade (3).

  • The league-leading Milwaukee Bucks are -5 favorites in Miami against the Heat on Friday night.
  • Matt Moore breaks down how Milwaukee's zone-busting adaptation gives them an edge.

The Bucks haven't just been good this year. They haven't even been great.

They've been dominant.

They rank third in offensive rating, first in defensive rating and first in net rating. They have the best record in the NBA. Maybe most impressive, though, is their consistency.


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They have the best net rating in losses and the second-best net rating in wins. That means when Bucks lose, rare as it is, they lose small and when the Bucks win, they win big. They have the most wins vs. teams over .500. The Bucks are 13-1 in-division and 27-5 at home. They check off very single win profile metric you want in a championship contender.

It's probably time we started treating Milwaukee like the dominant team they are. One of the most interesting things about them is how adaptable they've been this year. As teams have found counters, they've found counters to those counters.

Take the Heat, for example, who are five-point dogs to the Bucks at home Friday.

Miami has been using zone this season in attempt to slow down the 3-point barrage teams offer nowadays. This Fansided piece shows how zone has become more used this season by some of the best coaches.

When the Bucks played the Heat in December on a back-to-back, the Heat went zone 14 times, forcing just a 36% shooting performance from the Bucks on those possessions for just a 0.537 points per possession mark.

However, Milwaukee has shown how to adapt. In the second meeting, in January, Miami used zone 15 times, and Milwaukee rolled out a 1.537 points per possession mark, with a 74% effective field goal percentage.

That adaptation is huge this season. The knock against Mike Budenholzer has been that he was slow to react to tactical adjustments, particularly against LeBron James.

This isn't shocking; Budenholzer is from Gregg Popovich's tree and Pop is also reluctant to make adjustments based on need until the situation absolutely calls for it. (It's why San Antonio so often fails to adapt when they fall behind, by that point it's too late.)

The biggest key in breaking the zone? Knowing how to threaten it to cause it to move out of position. Giannis Antetokounmpo spooks the defense so much that it winds up overreacting and collapsing anyway, creating the same scenario that most pick-and-roll threats do.

Also watch the corner man here threaten while Brook Lopez calmly spots up for a 3-pointer.

Same deal here, the Heat are so terrified of Antetokounmpo with Ilyasova in that dunker position that they send the right side corner man down to help, which leaves Dwyane Wade having to pick and choose between two open 3's to give up.

The Heat are sporting one of the best lineups in the league since the All-Star break, a unit featuring Josh Richardson, Kelly Olynyk, Bam Adebayo, and Justise Winslow. But that lineup will have a tough time dealing with the constant threat the Bucks presents, the same threats that have made them the best team in the league all season long.

Throw in Miami's 14-21 ATS record at home, 4-4 since the All-Star break, and a line that remains under two possessions and Milwaukee's edge is considerable here.

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