The NBA playoffs resume with a pair of Game 2s today, Wednesday, May 6 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for both of tonight's matchups: 76ers vs. Knicks and Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for Wednesday's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props: Wednesday, May 6
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Knicks Parlay & Props
76ers 1H ML / Knicks ML Parlay (+478)
This is a classic "bet the narrative" play—the kind of thing I love to do in the NFL when you expect a team to start hot early but not necessarily have the legs to close the deal.
The market is overreacting to Philadelphia laying an egg in Game 1. It was an embarrassment, and we have to expect an early counterpunch from the Sixers here. But I only expect that push to last for part of the game.
The reality is that the Sixers' fundamental problems—the health disadvantage, the lack of depth, and the lingering fatigue—didn't just magically disappear because they had 48 hours to think about it. They still only have one day of rest before playing again, and that rest disadvantage isn't going anywhere.
I actually think we were a little bit lucky to hit our second-half bets in Game 1 because the blowout wasn't the ideal script. I like the second half much better today if the Sixers are actually leading at the break.
Remember: the Knicks are the #1 second-half team in the league with a +13 net rating on the season. They are clinical at home when it’s time to pull away.
We are betting on a logical sequence to occur here: Philly punches early to save face, but the Knicks' superior conditioning and second-half engine simply outlasts them.
Karl-Anthony Towns Rebounds Escalator
This is partly me trying to get ahead of the "Hack-a-Mitch" narrative. I expect Towns to see significant minutes early as the Knicks look to keep their best offensive lineups on the floor.
He’s already averaging 8.5 minutes in the first quarter throughout these playoffs, and while Game 1 didn't look like a statistical masterpiece, you have to look at the per-minute efficiency. Towns put up a 17, 6, and 6 line in the opener while playing just 20 minutes due to foul trouble. That is excellent for such a short stint. Even more encouraging? He rebounded 86% of his chances in Game 1.
I am going to like KAT as a rebounder every single time he steps on the court in this series. When Towns plays at least seven minutes in a quarter—which is the floor for his expected rotation—he has recorded three or more rebounds in 64% of those quarters.
Historically, a 64% hit rate should be priced closer to -200, yet we’re getting 3+ first-quarter rebounds at -102 at FanDuel. Because we know how these Knicks games can stack rebounds in a hurry, we’re playing the escalator: 5+ first-quarter rebounds is +550 and 6+ rebounds is +1100.
Josh Hart Over 13.5 Rebounds & Assists
The market already moved this line from Game 1, but it’s still far too low.
In the opener, Josh Hart put up 8 rebounds and 6 assists in just 26 minutes. He legitimately would have had a triple-double if he’d played the fourth quarter.
The potential stats tell the real story: Hart had 7 potential assists and 12 rebound chances in Game 1. He is essentially leading both categories in this series, which is why our 40-1 series assist leader ticket is now the second favorite at +250.
Against Philly in the regular season, he averaged over 17 RA per game. Even with limited minutes in a blowout, he hit 14 right on pace.
I think this line should be in the 15 or 16 range. I’m not playing escalators on this one, but 13.5 is a smash.
Brandon Anderson's 76ers vs Knicks Best Bets
- 76ers First Half Moneyline / Knicks Full Game Moneyline Parlay
- Karl-Anthony Towns Rebounds Escalator
- Josh Hart Over 13.5 Rebounds & Assists
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Escalator & Mineshaft
Spurs Spread Escalator
I’m taking the Spurs against the spread at -9.5, but we aren't just stopping there—we are doing some escalators. Home Game 2, down 0-1 is a quintessential spot for bettors.
Looking at the numbers in Bet Labs, home teams in this position are 53-36-3 against the spread since 2003, which is a 60% clip. But here is the one that really got me: Game 2 after losing Game 1 as a seven-point favorite or better, teams are 26-12 ATS—a 68% cover rate—winning by an average of six points per game.
I don't love playing a -9.5 spread at -110 because if you’re going to win by double digits in the playoffs, you might as well win by 20. The Spurs won 37% of their games this year by 15 or more, and 21% by 20 or more. Meanwhile, Minnesota has a habit of letting go of the rope; seven of their ten 15-point losses this season ended up being 20-point blowouts.
If the Spurs jump out to an early, they’re just going to pull their guys and wait for Game 3. Anthony Edwards still isn't fully healthy. So, just take the split and head home.
That’s why we’re playing the escalator at DraftKings and bet365: I’m taking Spurs -14.5 at +178 (DK), Spurs -19.5 at +400 (b365), and I’m even adding a nibble on Spurs -29.5 at +950 (b365).
In the playoffs, when games get ugly, they get really ugly.
Timberwolves Team Total Mineshaft
This is the mineshaft angle I should have played in Game 1. I got thrown off by the return of Edwards, but the read was correct: Minnesota struggled to score for three quarters. Their quarterly points were 24, 21, and 24 before that massive small-ball burst in the fourth. Outside of that outlier quarter, they were on a full-game pace of 92 points, which is a first-half pace of just 46.
I’m playing the Wolves first half team total under 50.5 at bet365, but I’m going deeper into the mineshaft with under 46.5 at +185 and under 40.5 at +650. I’ve also found a fascinating look at DraftKings that I’m adding to the card: you can bet the Under 50.5 for both halves at +330.
If the Spurs pull away, there’s no reason for Minnesota to play their small-ball lineup late. They’ll save that tactical adjustment for a game that actually matters.
If Ant isn't quite himself, the Wolves' offense is going to be stuck in mud. I’m even playing the "Both Halves Under 45.5" at +1200. We’ve seen the Spurs totally shut teams down this year, like they did against the Blazers. If the Wolves aren’t scoring and the Spurs aren’t being pushed, this game is destined to stay low.
Brandon Anderson's Timberwolves vs Spurs Best Bets
- Spurs Spread Escalator
- Timberwolves Team Total Mineshaft
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