NBA Best Bets Today | Expert Picks for Saturday, March 2

The NBA regular season continues with a relatively light 5-game slate this Saturday — headlined by a pair of nationally televised matchups spread throughout the day as Jazz vs Heat kicked off the festivities earlier today on NBA TV, and then Nuggets vs Lakers takes center stage a little bit later at 8:30 p.m. ET on ABC.

Our experts have locked in a total of five picks for four different matchups tonight. Let's dive into our NBA best bets for Saturday, March 2.

NBA Best Bets Today | Saturday, March 2

By Bryan Fonseca

I'm giving this prop another run even though Butler went under this mark against the Nuggets on Thursday despite playing 40 minutes. But even with that, he's gone over 1.5 steals in five of his last six and eight of his last 12.

The key marker on whether or not Butler is engaged and effective could often be his steals, you can also look at deflections or — you know, watch the games and see how he's playing the free safety role.

Nobody in the NBA turns the ball over more on a per game basis (15.9) or per 100 possession (15.7) than the Utah Jazz. And Butler will be at home for the first time since February 7 — he's reached two or more steals in three straight and six of his last eight games in Miami.

I think the Heat win, and Butler is averaging 1.8 steals per game in wins, whereas he's just at 1.1 steals per game in losses — another reason why the Denver under doesn't bother me.

Pick: Jimmy Butler Over 1.5 Steals (-120)

By Bryan Fonseca

I think the Blazers are going to at least keep this close, possibly even win outright, and if that's so, Jerami Grant will need to have a big night.

The Blazer wing has gone over 22.5 points in six of his last 10, but he'll be without Scoot Henderson, Malcolm Brogdon, Shaedon Sharpe, and likely DeAndre Ayton, who is listed as doubtful.

Over his last 10, Grant is averaging about 24 points on just 43% shooting, though he's at 38% from three-point range, and he's at nine free throw attempts per game in that stretch, hitting at an 84% clip. I don't mind the inconsistency from the field because the shot diet is there, as well as the foul shooting.

Grant is averaging 17 field goal attempts and, combined with nine free throws, equating to roughly 26 chances per game to score, about five of which are also coming from three-point range. Grant's volume of shooting should be there against the Grizzlies as he and Anfernee Simons lead the way.

Grant put up a minimum of 14 shot attempts in every game during the month of February, and he's shot at least six free throws in eight of his last 12.

Pick: Jerami Grant Over 22.5 Points (-125)

By Chris Baker

The Nuggets have flipped the script since the All-Star Break as they have won and covered the opening number in five straight games. This number is being discounted because Jamal Murray will be out for the Nuggets. But the Nuggets have still been a good team with him off the floor as they have a +3.0 net-rating for the season with Murray out.

With Murray off and Jokic on they are +8.2 for the season. The Lakers are +2.4 with LeBron and Anthony Davis on the court this season. The Nuggets are the better team regardless of Murray’s status and I think this line is over-inflating Murray’s impact on the Nuggets.

The Lakers don’t have a great answer for Jokic on the glass as the Nuggets have dominated them in the paint in each matchup this year — rebounding 40% of their misses in the most recent meeting on February 8.

Ultimately, the Nuggets are the better team with or without Murray and I think this line should be closer to Lakers +2 or +2.5. Back the Nuggets to handle business in LA.

Pick: Nuggets +1 (-115)

By Joe Dellera

This line is a bit low for Durant even with Bradley Beal (probable-hamstring) likely making his return. This is the front end of a back-to-back and Beal will likely be on a minutes restriction.

When Durant has played alongside of Beal, he has averaged 26.6 points and 5.4 assists for 32 points + assists. He has exceeded his 28.5 PA line in 65% of games with Beal and 77% of games overall. While Durant naturally cedes some usage to Beal, he is so efficient this is still a line he can hit.

Over the last month, Houston is just average defensively and they do not have a great counter for KD with Tari Eason continuing to miss time. Besides that, KD has exceeded this line in all three games versus Houston this season with 43, 36, and 30 PA.

I like Durant to exceed 28.5 points + assists tonight.

Pick: Kevin Durant Over 28.5 PTS + AST (-135)

By Michael Fiddle

There is a very fun strategy angle to understand in capping these back to back games. Since the Rockets and Suns just played two days ago, the most important capping information we can have is the previous games closing numbers.

In this case, it was a spread of -9 and a game total of 231.5.

The closing numbers for the first game as such a strong indicator because they are the market consensus based off of the entire season and priors that go into it.

When the numbers appear for the the following game, they are a reflection of the closing number plus an adjustment to the one game sample size results we just had. That is an overreaction!

When the total for this game re opened at 229, it was a no brainer to scoop up an over because it was going to close above 231.5.

Pick: Over 232 (-110)

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