The NBA Playoffs resume with a trio of Game 3s today, Thursday, April 23 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in a total picks for all three of today's matchups: Raptors vs. Cavaliers, Hawks vs. Knicks, and Timberwolves vs. Nuggets.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for tonight's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props: Thursday, April 23
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Knicks vs. Hawks Player Prop
Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists
Josh Hart has been filling up the stat sheet early in this series, and I don’t know why the books haven’t moved this line yet. He’s recorded 19 RA in both games this series, and it isn't fluky. He’s had 19 rebounding chances in both contests—trailing only Nikola Jokic for the postseason lead—and he just cashed six assists on 10 potentials in Game 2.
The Knicks' bench is currently a disaster. Clarkson, Shamet, Alvarado, and Deuce combined for just seven points in 43 minutes last time out. They can't keep them on the floor, and Mitchell Robinson was a -10 in his 18 minutes. That means Hart is going to play massive minutes, and we know that when Hart plays, he produces.
I’m also hitting the escalator. In 30 games where Hart played real minutes, he hit 15 RA in 16 of them. That’s a 53% hit rate, yet we’re getting +215 at FanDuel. I’m betting it up to 20 RA at +1200. He’s hit that 20-mark in 30% of his playoff starts with the Knicks, but the market is pricing it like an 8% chance.
Josh Hart, do the thing.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120)
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Cavaliers vs. Raptors First Half Spread Prediction
Raptors First Half Spread +1.5
I’m taking the Raptors First Half +1.5. When the home team is down 0-2 coming home for Game 3, it is pretty much an auto-bet spot. I wasn’t exactly looking to invest in Toronto, but the trends here are undeniable.
Historically, home teams down 0-2 are 93-51-2 ATS (65%) in the first half of Game 3. Furthermore, home teams in Game 3 coming off a road loss of five-plus points are 112-65-6 ATS (63%) in the first half. This is what we call the "yo-yo effect." No matter how bad a team looked on the road, they almost always punch back at home early.
I’m sticking to the first half spread because the books have started pricing the full-game zig-zag more efficiently, but the first-half value remains.
Beyond the trends, Toronto actually found a blueprint in Game 2. They outscored Cleveland 64–52 in the paint, which was the highest rim rate the Cavs allowed all season—nearly half of Toronto’s shots came at the cup.
If you ignore Brandon Ingram’s horrifying performance, the rest of the Raptors shot 33-of-45 (73%) on twos against Mobley and Allen. Add in a 16–2 edge in fast-break points and a potentially fattened-up Cavs team feeling a bit too good about themselves, and I think we'll see Toronto win the first 24 minutes in Game 3 tonight.
Pick: Raptors First Half Spread +1.5 (-115)
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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Spread Pick & Prop Bet
Nuggets -1.5
Look, Denver totally blew Game 2. They were up 19 in the second quarter and seemingly had the series on lock before one terrible six-minute stretch where the Wolves scored on 10 straight possessions. Now it’s 1-1 and everything is open, but through two games of data, the Nuggets have clearly been the better team for all but about 10 minutes.
Jokic isn't going to get dominated by Rudy and Randle again; he’s just too good for that. He was uncharacteristically passive in Game 2, but I expect him to come out and cook, especially during those non-Gobert minutes. This is a spot for a team with a championship mentality to feel embarrassed and respond accordingly.
The extra day of rest is also massive here—Murray and Jokic played 43 and 40 minutes respectively in Game 2. You go for the kill and miss, and that’s heavy for a six-and-a-half-man rotation, so those two days off are vital.
Then, there’s the trend: road favorites in the playoffs following a loss of more than three points are 23-9-1 ATS. That’s a 72% cover rate by an average of 6.5 points. I’m simply trusting the better team to reset and respond.
Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 Rebounds & Assists
I don’t think I need to spend too much time telling you why Jokic is awesome, but in a pivotal Game 3, I expect him to aggressively attack the Timberwolves' bigs much better than he did in the Game 2 loss.
The underlying volume numbers for the Joker have been staggering. He recorded 26 rebounding chances in Game 2 and 25 in Game 1—monster numbers that nobody else in the NBA is coming close to right now. On that kind of volume, I’m projecting him for 15-plus rebounds easily.
Then you look at the playmaking: he has logged 20 and 21 potential assists through the first two games, which should consistently translate to 10–12 actual assists. I’m projecting him closer to 26.5 RA total.
If you want to look elsewhere, the triple-double is playable at -114, but I’m also eyeing the escalator on his rebounds. I’ll take 16+ rebounds at +230. He has grabbed 15 or more boards in nine of his last 26 playoff games (35%) over the last two years— and I'll also sprinkle 20+ rebounds at +700. He did that twice in each of the last two playoffs as well.
Picks: Nuggets -1.5 (-115), Nikola Jokic Over 23.5 Rebounds & Assists (-108)
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