The NBA Playoffs resume with a trio of Game 5s today, Tuesday, April 28 — and our NBA betting expert Brandon Anderson has locked in picks for all three of today's matchups: 76ers vs. Celtics, Hawks vs. Knicks, and Trail Blazers vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA best bets, spread picks, and player props for tonight's playoff games.
NBA Best Bets, Spread Picks, Player Props: Tuesday, April 28
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76ers vs. Celtics Spread Bet
76ers +11.5
This is a narrative we’ve seen play out time and time again: the Boston Celtics simply do not show up focused after a big win.
It's the same postseason trend that we've been fading for years. I know the talk is that this is a different team, and maybe it is, but guess what? The trend continued in the second matchup of this series.
Let’s look at the numbers, because they are staggering. Since the start of the 2020 playoffs, after winning a game by more than 10 points, Boston is now 11-24-1 against the spread. That is a miserable 31% cover rate in the postseason, and they aren't just barely missing; they are failing the number by an average of 5.5 points a game.
Even more concerning for those laying the double digits tonight is that the Celtics have failed to cover in this exact spot 10 straight times — and they lost the last four of those games outright.
We saw the blueprint for this in Game 2. After Boston cruised in Game 1, we did what we always do—we wrote the series off and said it was over. And then the Celtics showed up fat and happy for Game 2. They missed their shots, sure, but more importantly, they were lackadaisical on the defensive end. They weren't pressuring, they weren't locked in, and they let Philadelphia get comfortable.
When you let an NBA team get their shots in rhythm, they’re going to hit them. The Sixers got hot—maybe that was just the one VJ Edgecombe game—and that was all it took.
To be clear, this is a one-star play for a reason. If you’ve been listening to me so far, you know I’m not exactly in love with Philly, nor am I looking to invest in the Sixers' longterm here.
I’m not betting on a Sixers resurgence; I’m backing a Boston historical trend following a blowout. Until the Celtics buck this trend, I'm taking the points in these spots.
Pick: 76ers +11.5 (-110)
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Hawks vs. Knicks First Half Spread Bet
Knicks First Half Spread -3.5
In Game 1, we had the Knicks -2.5 in the first half; they were up five, Onyeka Okongwu hit a meaningless three at the buzzer, and we got caught by the hook. Despite that heartbreak, New York is still +9 in combined first halves at home this series, including a +7 showing in Game 2.
The Knicks were the best first-half team at home all season with a staggering +12.9 net rating. They’ve clearly been the superior team in this series, leading in all four factors. They are 2-0 in games that weren’t coin flips and 0-2 in the ones that were.
Historically, Game 5 favorites who were also favored in Game 4 cover at a 62% clip (37-23-1 ATS). After New York dismantled Atlanta in Game 4, I think they’ve officially solved this Hawks team.
I’m also playing some escalators: Knicks 1H -8.5 (+245) and Knicks 1H -13.5 (+575).
The Knicks led by double digits at the half in 29% of their home games, while the Hawks have trailed by 9+ at the break in 10 of their 41 road tries. The Garden is going to be rocking tonight, and I expect New York to come out swinging early.
Pick: Knicks First Half Spread -3.5 (-110)
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Trail Blazers vs. Spurs First Quarter Spread & Series Props
Spurs First Quarter Spread -3.5
I’m going right back to Spurs First Quarter -3.5 here. This was my Game 1 best bet, and they covered that frame by nine points easily. Even in Game 2, when they came out a little flat and the Blazers jumped out to a lead, San Antonio still managed to fight back and win the quarter.
The situational trends here are just screaming at us. During the regular season, the Blazers were 20th in road net rating (-4.0) and 21st in first-quarter net rating (-4.0). Meanwhile, the Spurs are a massive +15 in the opening frame. That’s a staggering 19-point swing in San Antonio's favor.
Portland’s offense is struggling to buy a bucket right now—Scoot Henderson didn’t even record a field goal last game.
On the road in a Game 5, there’s a real chance this young Portland team has reached its breaking point. If the Blazers have checked out, we’ll see that lack of energy immediately.
Plus, Victor Wembanyama’s rotation post-concussion is actually working in our favor; he’s taking an earlier break but coming back in to close the quarter.
I’m also eyeing the escalator: Spurs to win the 1Q by 10+ (+375). They did that 18 times this season, while the Blazers have 14 double-digit first-quarter losses.
Victor Wembanyama to Lead the Series in Points
This might be my favorite bet of the day. Wembanyama to lead the series in scoring at 50-1 odds.
Honestly, when are we ever going to get 50-1 on Wemby for a scoring title again? He’s currently sitting at 67 points, trailing Deni Avdija (89), Stephon Castle (84), and De'Aaron Fox (80).
Yes, a 22-point gap is sizable, but you have to remember he essentially missed two games due to the concussion. In his two full games this series, he’s averaging 31 points per game.
We almost definitely need the Blazers to win tonight so we get a Game 6 for this bet to have real legs, but at this price, I’ll take that gamble every time.
If Wemby drops 32 a game over two more starts, he hits 131 total points. At that rate, we just need Deni to stay under 21 PPG and Castle under 24—which is entirely reasonable if Victor is the one doing the heavy lifting.
If the Blazers steal this one, I like the bet even better because it gives Wemby more runway to pull ahead. It’s 50-1 on the most fun player on the planet. How are you not going to put that in your bet slip and just root for Wemby to go crazy?
Picks: Spurs First Quarter Spread -3.5 (-110), Victor Wembanyama to Lead Series in Points (+5000)
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