The Atlanta Hawks (2-2) and New York Knicks (2-2) will face off in Game 5 of the opening round of the NBA playoffs tonight. Tipoff is set for 8:00 p.m. ET from Madison Square Garden in New York City. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Knicks are 6.5-point favorites over the Hawks on the spread (Knicks -6.5), with the over/under set at 213.5 total points. New York is a -250 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Hawks vs. Knicks predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 28.
Hawks vs Knicks Prediction
- Hawks vs Knicks pick: Knicks First Half Spread -3.5 (-110)
My Knicks vs. Hawks Game 5 best bet is on New York to cover the first half spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Hawks vs Knicks Odds for Game 5
| Hawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | +205 |
| Knicks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 213.5 -112o / -108u | -250 |
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Hawks vs Knicks NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview, Analysis
If you’ve been following me this postseason, you know this is the same "Knicks First Half at Home" angle I gave out for Game 1, and quite frankly, this series owes me some money.
Let’s talk about that Game 1 heartbreak for a second, because it illustrates why this play is so strong.
We had the Knicks -2.5 in the first half. They were up five with seconds left. Atlanta drives, kicks it out to Onyeka Okongwu, and he hits a three at the buzzer. The Knicks win the half by two, we lose by a hook, and then Atlanta goes on to lose the game by double digits anyway.
That buzzer-beater didn’t change the reality of who these teams are; it just stole our cover.
The Knicks were the best first-half team at home during the regular season with a staggering +12.9 net rating. They followed that up in Game 2 by going into the break +7. Between those two home starts, they are still +9 in combined first halves.
The process is right, even if Okongwu’s jump shot was wrong last time.
New York Knicks Betting Preview, Analysis
When you look at the macro-view of this series, the Knicks have clearly been the superior team. They lead in all four factors (shooting, turnovers, rebounding, and free throws).
In the games that haven't been "coin flips"—the ones decided by execution rather than a lucky bounce—New York is 2-0. However, they are 0-2 in the two coin-flip games.
Honestly, the Knicks should be leading this series 3-1 right now, and if they would have hit just a few more open looks, it could have easily been a sweep.
There's also a historical trend in our favor here: Game 5 favorites that were also favored in Game 4 are 37-23-1 against the spread (62%).
This suggests that when a better team asserts its dominance on the road in Game 4—which the Knicks just did by crushing the Hawks in Atlanta—they usually carry that momentum right back home to finish the job.
There is a real chance that New York solved this Hawks team in Game 4, and if that’s the case, this first-half angle looks even better in Game 5 tonight.
Hawks vs Knicks Pick, Betting Analysis
I’m running back the same escalators I took in Game 1.
The Knicks led by double digits at the half in 29% of their home games this season. Meanwhile, the Hawks trailed by nine or more at the half on the road in 10 of their 41 tries.
I’m playing the standard -3.5, but I’m also hunting the alternates: Knicks 1H -8.5 (+245), Knicks 1H -13.5 (+575).
The Knicks have already led by 15+ at the half in nine home games this season (22% of the time). If they come out with the same defensive intensity we saw in Atlanta, they could have this game put away by dinner time.
Somebody owes me money in this series—maybe it’s the Hawks, maybe it’s the Knicks, or maybe it’s both—but I’m going to get it back tonight. Give me the Knicks 1H in Game 5 tonight.
Pick: Knicks First Half Spread -3.5 (-110)
Hawks vs Rebounds Betting Trends
