The Philadelphia 76ers (1-3) and Boston Celtics (3-1) will square off in Game 5 of their first-round NBA playoff series tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET from TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on ESPN.
The Celtics are 11.5-point favorites over the Sixers on the spread (Celtics -11.5), with the over/under set at 214.5 total points. Boston is a -550 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Philadelphia is +410 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my 76ers vs. Celtics predictions and NBA picks for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 28.
76ers vs Celtics Prediction
- 76ers vs Celtics pick: Celtics -11.5 (-115)
My Celtics vs. 76ers Game 5 best bet is on Boston to cover the spread. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
76ers vs Celtics Odds for Game 5
| 76ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -105 | 214.5 -105o / -115u | +410 |
| Celtics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -115 | 214.5 -105o / -115u | -550 |
76ers vs Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 5 Preview
Philadelphia 76ers Betting Preview, Analysis
I’ll be the first to admit: the trends for this game definitely aren't going to back me up. But in this specific matchup, the tactical reality on the floor overrides the historical ATS data.
Quite simply, I don’t think the 76ers can win this game with Joel Embiid on the floor. That sounds like a hot take, and I want to be clear: it’s not that Embiid is bad. He’s a generational talent.
However, there is a specific way of playing that you need to employ if you want to hang with this version of the Celtics, and Embiid's presence fundamentally changes that.
I actually really liked the matchup for Philly when they were leaning into their Embiid-less identity—the one where they have Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, Quentin Grimes, and Kelly Oubre out there with Adem Bona, and they just switch everything.
Boston Celtics Betting Preview, Analysis
When the Sixers play without Embiid, they throw something different at Boston. They become a high-variance, high-mobility squad that can actually challenge the Celtics' perimeter-heavy offense.
The 76ers were probably still going to lose the series playing that way, but they could have hung around. They could have stayed within these double-digit numbers. But with Embiid back? Everything becomes more traditional, and Boston loves to kill traditionally centered teams.
If you are a team that relies on a big man who is going to play drop-coverage or sit in the paint, the Celtics are going to hunt you. They pull those bigs out to the perimeter, they create massive spacing gaps, and they just exploit the lack of mobility. We’ve seen it time and time again.
Is it possible that the Celtics have another bad variance game where they miss all their shots? Absolutely. I don’t love laying a number this big, and quite honestly, I don’t love almost anything in this series from a betting perspective right now.
It is incredibly difficult to adjust player prop expectations for the Sixers with Embiid back because we just don’t have a large enough sample size to understand what Nick Nurse is going to do in this situation or what tactical tweaks he’s going to prioritize.
76ers vs Celtics Pick, Betting Analysis
This Philly team feels like it’s running out of steam and out of answers. Meanwhile, the Celtics have righted the ship.
Boston has an opportunity to close out this series at home tonight and get some much-needed rest before facing the winner of Knicks-Hawks in the next round—a series that looks like it’s going to go long.
The Celtics want to get this over with. They want to avoid the "fat and happy" trap and execute the knockout punch. Plus, with Embiid back, Boston is in complete control of the geometry of the court. I’ll lay the wood with the Celtics -11.5 in Game 5 tonight.
Pick: Celtics -11.5 (-115)
76ers vs Celtics Betting Trends
