NBA Odds, Expert Picks, Predictions: Wednesday’s Best Bets
Pictured: Trae Young. (Photo by Adam Hagy/NBAE via Getty Images)
- Tonight's NBA slate features eight games and our NBA betting experts have found great value in four of them.
- Our experts are targeting a trio of player props and a pair of bets against the spread.
- Continue reading below for their best bets and analysis.
The Wednesday NBA schedule features eight games — Wizards-Pistons has been postponed — including a National TV doubleheader on ESPN featuring Nets vs. Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and Hawks vs. Suns (10 p.m. ET).
Our betting analysts are focused on four of those matchups for their best bets tonight and are targeting various player props and spread bets. Check out their expert picks and predictions for Wednesday’s slate of games below.
NBA Odds & Picks
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Jim Turvey: Fading a big name in the modern NBA is always a tough call, but if deployed correctly can be profitable. Ja Morant and the Grizzlies host the Trail Blazers on Wednesday, and fresh off a pair of triple-doubles, Morant appears to have a slightly inflated points + rebounds + assists (PRA) prop.
For the season, Morant is averaging 27.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game–that’s 41.2 PRA. In his past 10 games, he’s at 27.3/4.9/9.2 — that’s 41.4 PRA. Neither of those come close to 45.5. In fact, he has gone under this prop in eight of his 12 games this calendar year, and in 25 of his 42 games overall this season.
Part of the logic on this line may be that Desmond Bane is out, and that may increase the scoring burden on Ja, but he averaged 25.5/6.8/8.5 — 40.8 PRA — during Bane’s extended injury absence earlier this season.
In the Blazers, Morant draws an opponent with, in theory, a soft defensive backcourt, but the team actually excels at limiting points to opposing guards in the pick-and-roll, and they are the sixth-slowest pace team in the league.
All signs point to the under here, and I would play it down to under 43.5 -110.
Sacramento Kings vs. San Antonio Spurs
Jim Turvey: There’s a lot to like here. The Kings rookie has hit this number in nine of 15 games since the calendar turned over, and he draws a perfect matchup for his skill set on Wednesday.
The Spurs allow an almost comical 40.3% opponent 3-point percentage this season, by far the worst mark in the league. Murray has already proven himself one of the best young gunners from deep, currently ranking just outside the top 10 in the league, at 42.2%.
Both teams are in the top 10 in the league in Pace, and unsurprisingly, the over has already taken lots of money, both public and sharp.
Because the Kings are on the road, and because of how both teams have played this season, I don’t see this game getting out of hand early, but even if it did, a rookie like Murray is less likely to have a blowout impact his minutes than a veteran who Mike Brown and Co. might want to save a few minutes on their legs.
Murray has also been hitting the glass a lot harder of late, with his two highest career totals in rebounds coming in the past two weeks, and his career high in assists came during that same time.
There’s less wiggle room with this play because the number is lower than someone like Morant, but I’d play this over 19.5 as well right up to -110.
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Andrew O’Connor-Watts: The Warriors might be turning a corner. They’re 5-1 in their past six road games — a streak that would have been unthinkable one month ago. While that’s all well and good, I’ll wait for a slightly larger sample size before I take too much stock into that trend: They’re still 9-16 against the spread on the road for the season.
Meanwhile, the Timberwolves have been playing well. They’ve gone 6-2 straight up and ATS in their past eight games and they’ve specifically thrived at home (5-2 in their last seven).
In their head-to-head meetings in Minnesota, the Wolves have been much better than the Warriors. Before these two teams met in November, the Wolves hadn’t dropped a game to the Warriors at the Target Center since 2019.
I also just like the spot for the Wolves. A situational trend our own Matt Moore has talked about is one that favors the Timberwolves tonight. Fading teams following a game against the Oklahoma City Thunder has been extremely profitable this season and guess who the Warriors just played on Monday night. You guessed it.
Mark Daigneault has the Thunder playing extremely tight and physical basketball. OKC doesn’t make many mistakes and they wear down opponents.
My model, which skews heavily towards home-road splits, has the Wolves as favorites and once again we’re getting them as home dogs. I’ll take the Timberwolves to cover any underdog spread and I’ll bet a half unit on the moneyline.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Chris Baker: This is a good spot to back a Hawks team that should be getting Trae Young back for this one.
The Hawks are off of two straight losses to the Clippers and the Blazers but they each shot above 48% from beyond the arc in those games. I don’t expect the Suns to take as many 3s nor make as many in this spot as the Suns pretty much live in the mid-range when Chris Paul is running the show.
With Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton on the floor, the Suns offense ranks in the 100th percentile of mid-range rate, attempting 45% of their shots from mid-range. This is massive for this Hawks team as they rarely have a “math” advantage over their opponents as the Hawks rank 29th in offensive three point attempt rate on the year.
The Hawks should not be at a math disadvantage tonight and their talent should win out on offense. Focusing back on the Suns for a second, it is important to remember just how awful this team is without Devin Booker.
With Paul and Ayton on the floor, and Booker out, this team ranks in the first percentile of offensive rating (102.8) and the 17th percentile of defensive rating (118.4). Overall, they have a -15.6 net rating (second percentile) with Booker off and CP3/Ayton on the floor.
It is important to remember that in the wake of two-wins against a bad Spurs team and a middling Raptors team. This Hawks team is actually solid with Young and Clint Capela in the lineup, ranking in the 72nd percentile of net-rating (+3.2) when on the floor together.
Young should be able to have his way in the pick and roll and Capela/Collins should be able to limit Ayton on the other end. The Hawks are a significantly better team than this Suns team when healthy so I will gladly grab them as underdogs in this spot.
Atlanta Hawks vs. Phoenix Suns
Joe Dellera: The Hawks take on the Phoenix Suns tonight. I’m on the Hawks for the full game and you can check out my betting guide here.
One player that I’m targeting is Trae Young.
Trae has exceeded his points prop of 25.5 in six of his last ten games and 58% of games this season. While he has not played Phoenix yet this season, he destroyed them last season with scoring outbursts of 31 and 43 points. I think Mikal Bridges will cover Dejounte Murray today and open the floor up for Trae to dominate in the pick-and-roll.
He’s returning from a one game absence due to an ankle injury but with the way their offense has been rolling lately I trust Young to get buckets against the Suns tonight.
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