Hawks vs. Suns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview

Hawks vs. Suns Odds, Pick, Prediction | NBA Betting Preview article feature image
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Quinn Harris/Getty Images. Pictured: Trae Young of the Atlanta Hawks.

  • The Atlanta Hawks travel out west to take on the Phoenix Suns in a Wednesday night cross-conference showdown.
  • Both teams have excelled in the first quarter when their starting lineups have been healthy, but Joe Dellera sees betting value elsewhere.
  • Check out Dellera's full betting preview for Hawks vs. Suns below.

Hawks vs. Suns Odds

Hawks Odds+100
Suns Odds-118
Over/Under231.5 (-110/-110)
Time10 p.m. ET
TVESPN
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NBA odds here.

The Atlanta Hawks head to the Valley on Wednesday to take on the Suns, who are hanging in there in the muck of it in the Western Conference.

The Suns sit in seventh, but they are just a half-game out of the 4-seed and two games ahead of the 12-seed. This will be a fun matchup between two of the league's best point guards.

Let's break down my favorite angle for Hawks vs Suns.


Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are anticipating Trae Young to return to the lineup after missing last game due to an ankle injury; he's listed as probable for this contest.

This would cut into Dejounte Murray's usage a bit, but Trae has found success against the Suns, averaging 37 points and nine assists against them last season.

The Hawks have been a bit of a disappointment this season, sitting in eighth place in the East and one game under .500. Much of this is because they've had various injuries. Plus, the complex offense they run with Young and Murray takes some nuance and time to perfect.

On the season, the Hawks have a -1.3 point differential per 100 possessions, and while this has not improved much over the last month (-0.4), the offense has dramatically improved. The Hawks are scoring 118.6 points per 100 possessions — they just are allowing 118.9 over the same stretch, per Cleaning the Glass.

They have finally found success in their starting lineup.

The lineup of Young, Murray, DeAndre Hunter, John Collins and Clint Capela has now played 827 possessions together, and they have a point differential of +11.5 while scoring 119.6 points and allowing just 108.1 points per 100 possessions. All of those numbers are in the 90th percentile or greater of all lineups, per Cleaning the Glass.

This checks out. On the season, the Hawks have gone just 23-28 against the spread (ATS) in the first quarter. However, as the team has rounded into form, they are 7-3 ATS in the 1Q over their last 10 games. That starting lineup is a wagon.

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Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns continue to miss star guard Devin Booker (groin) as he hopes to return soon from injury. They will trot out a starting lineup of Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Torrey Craig, Cam Johnson, and Deandre Ayton.

The Suns struggled without their two star guards, but since Paul's return on Jan. 22, they have found success and are 4-1 over this stretch. The Point God is back.

Similar to the Hawks, the Suns have found success in the first quarter. They were severely underrated after missing their top guards and are 4-1 ATS since Paul's return. This negates the edge Atlanta has to start the game.

What's interesting is that on the season, both Paul and Ayton have negative point differentials, with Paul at -1.7 and Ayton at -10.6. This is shocking, but if we look under the hood and dive into some advanced metrics, we know their impact is greater than those numbers.

Paul has an EPM of +2.8, which is in the 91st percentile, and Ayton sits at just -0.3 in the 66th percentile — but it's not nearly as rough to see as -10.6. The Suns still have some juice left in the West.

Hawks-Suns Pick

Both of these teams are underperforming relative to their full-season expectations. However, both teams have endless potential.

However, I find an edge here with the road team. Atlanta's rotations are healthy and essentially complete at this point in time. Despite Phoenix's strong play with Paul's return, it's been fortunate that three of those games were against relatively bad teams in the Raptors, Spurs, and Hornets.

Atlanta's depth and versatility will be valuable, and I trust it to score in this spot.

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Jun 20, 2024 UTC