Friday NBA Odds & Picks for Hawks vs. Warriors: Will Atlanta Get Back on Track Against Golden State? (March 26)

Friday NBA Odds & Picks for Hawks vs. Warriors: Will Atlanta Get Back on Track Against Golden State? (March 26) article feature image
Credit:

Adam Pantozzi/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Clint Capela and Trae Young.

  • The Atlanta Hawks have cooled off a bit with two consecutive losses following eight wins in a row.
  • On the other side, the Golden State Warriors have been a mess since losing Steph Curry to an injury.
  • Which team has the edge in Friday's showdown? Kenny Ducey breaks it down below.

Hawks vs. Warriors Odds

Hawks Odds -6
Warriors Odds +6
Moneyline -235 / +190
Over/Under 220
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV NBA League Pass
Odds as of Friday morning and via DraftKings

After winning a remarkable eight in a row, the red-hot Hawks have cooled down with two straight losses and will be out for blood against a weak and wounded Warriors team.

Golden State is not only has to deal with the loss of Stephen Curry, now Draymond Green’s status for the game is up in the air on the second night of a back-to-back.

Does this Hawks team get back in the car and keep on driving toward the playoffs, or will the Warriors finally right the ship and stay afloat as they patiently wait for the return of Curry?

Let’s see if we can’t find the answer, or at least some value, in this game.

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Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have finally come back to Earth. The Clippers and Kings have brought an end to a glorious eight-game winning streak which featured wins over the Heat, Raptors and Lakers. Though the quality of wins weren’t impressive over that 10-game stretch, there was plenty to get excited about.

Unlike some teams that just catch a heater on offense and go on an incredible shooting streak, the Hawks have done this the hard way, with great work on defense and on the glass. Over the past 10 games, the Hawks have ranked fifth in defensive efficiency, allowing just 108.1 points per 100 possessions, and fifth in rebounding rate, grabbing 53% of available boards.

Danilo Gallinari, of all people, has led the way for the Atlanta regulars with a 99.1 defensive rating over the last 10 games, while Clint Capela has had a whopping 15 rebounds per game, up one from his season average. Atlanta’s prowess on the glass and its ability to defend should suffocate Golden State, which has struggled all season long in the frontcourt and has had severe issues scoring the ball without Curry.

The Hawks have hovered around .500 against the spread all season long, so their 11-12-1 ATS record on the road isn’t all that disheartening, though it doesn’t provide the utmost confidence in them here. They’re also just 4-6-1 as the away favorite. That said, Atlanta has covered five times in its last seven games, perhaps showing a new side.

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Golden State Warriors

What looked like it could be a promising week for the Warriors on Tuesday has quickly spiraled in the wrong direction. Golden State held a late lead against the Sixers thanks to some timely shot-making, but its defense crumbled and its offense ran out of answers late, not only losing, but losing by 10 and failing to cover the four-point spread.

From there, the Dubs seemingly carried over none of the positive signs from Tuesday and were dismantled by the Kings on Thursday, and now have to turn around on less than 24 hours rest and try again.

The big thorn in the Warriors’ side on Thursday was losing Green to illness, just as the frontcourt had begun to get healthy. Perhaps it was just rest and a way of preparing for the Hawks game, but it certainly doesn’t do anything to help the issues that Golden State’s had in the frontcourt. The Warriors were missing James Wiseman, Kevon Looney and Eric Paschall for a big stretch, forcing them to look to G-Leaguer Alen Smailagić as a complement to Green.

Wiseman and Looney just returned this week. Paschall has yet to return, but there’s a chance the Warriors could get both him and Green back for the Hawks game, which would allow them to throw their best punch at Atlanta. You can track the potential returns of Paschall and Green using our Action Labs tools.

Golden State currently sits 24th in rebounding this season, and though the Warriors maintained a good defensive presence, they have no clue how to score the basketball right now. The Warriors rank 27th in offensive efficiency over the past 10 games at 105.7 points per 100 possessions — When Curry went down with an injury he took the entire offense with him.

The only saving grace for the Warriors over this span has been a semi-decent 36.7% 3-point success rate, but they’ve found nothing in terms of their ability to score in the paint.


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Hawks-Warriors Pick

The Warriors are playing this one at home, so they’re at least worth considering. They hold a 12-9 record against the spread at the Chase Center, generally giving teams a good fight there. That’s about where the consideration ends.

Golden State has covered just three out of nine times on the second night of a back-to-back, and matches up pretty horribly with Atlanta. It’s the 24th-ranked rebounding team, going up against a Hawks side which is sixth in that category.

The 3-ball has worked decently for the Warriors of late, but they’ll now be running into the fourth-best 3-point defense. Not only do the Dubs have a depleted frontcourt, they’re going up against a lockdown paint defense and a great shot-blocker in Capela.

It’s also not like Atlanta has cooled off that much. Sure, the Hawks have lost two straight, but those games were decided by an average of 5.5 points.

The trends and the matchup both point to the Hawks running away with this one. The only thing scaring you here should be the Warriors’ strong play at home, but that should not be enough to overcome the problems facing a team that’s looking dead in the water.

Pick: Hawks -6 (up to -8)

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