The NBA regular season continues with an excellent 10-game slate today — Tuesday, April 7.
Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified best bets for six of tonight's matchups — including picks for Hornets vs. Celtics, Rockets vs. Suns and more.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday, April 7.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Tuesday, April 7
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Heat vs. Raptors Over/Under Pick
I’m looking at the matchup between the Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors tonight, and I’m grabbing the Under at 239.5. You might see some 238.5s popping up in the market — and I’m fine with that — but I actually modeled this game at 238 flat, even with Norman Powell returning to the lineup.
Speaking of Powell, he’s back from a respiratory illness tonight. While my model assumes he returns to a full workload with no downsizing of his minutes, you have to wonder if he’ll truly have his full wind after being sidelined with a breathing-related issue.
If he’s even slightly hampered, that’s another notch in favor of the under.
This is essentially the one game on the board today with true playoff intensity. Situationally, I’ve been pricing these late-season matchups as spots that should have a postseason mindset behind them. The reason totals drop in the playoffs is simple: the value of each possession increases.
When a game matters this much, players are hesitant to just hoist up a quick shot. They want to work the offense for the exact look they’ve schemed for. We’re going to see coaches hunting specific matchup imbalances—bringing over a screener to bait a switch — and that leads to teams getting much deeper into the shot clock.
There is also a massive pace discrepancy at play. The Heat currently rank first in the NBA in pace, while the Raptors are 22nd. Since we are on the Raptors' home floor, I’m banking on the game script playing a little more into Toronto’s preferred style of play.
With the spread sitting right around a pick’em, we are expecting a total dogfight. I expect this line to drop as tipoff approaches, so grab this number while you can.
Pick: Under 239.5 (-110)
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Hornets vs. Celtics Spread Prediction
By Sean Little
I’m looking at the Charlotte Hornets tonight catching the points against the Boston Celtics. I’ll take the Hornets +6.5 in a spot that I expect to be a real battle. We’re getting into that time of year where the game starts to slow down — fewer possessions and more of a deliberate, playoff-style environment.
These two teams just squared off last week, and Boston took care of business in that one. When you have two teams meeting again that quickly, it usually sets up a perfect revenge spot for the team that dropped the first game. The Hornets should come into this one with a chip on their shoulder.
Now, we know the situation in the East: the one-seed is already sealed up for Boston. The thing about the Celtics, though, is that they don’t seem to care about having nothing left to play for. Joe Mazzulla has those guys showing up every single night, and they just continue to crack people in the head regardless of the standings.
You have to respect the culture they’ve built where there is no off-switch, even with the top seed locked.
However, I think Charlotte is playing some really good basketball right now. The Hornets have been competitive, they’re playing with energy, and most importantly, they are rebounding the ball at a high level.
The Hornets have shown they can hang on the glass with a team like Boston, and in a game with fewer possessions, those second-chance opportunities and defensive boards become massive for an underdog trying to stay within the number.
Even with Boston's no-days-off mentality, this is a great spot to back a resilient Charlotte squad that is looking for some payback from last Sunday. I expect a much tighter contest this time around.
Pick: Hornets +5 (-110)
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Kings vs. Warriors ATS Best Bet
By Bet Labs
For tonight’s divisional showdown at the Chase Center, our Bet Labs system titled "Visitor Recent 'Dogs – Losing Streak" has identified a massive edge on the Sacramento Kings +14.5.
While the public is currently sprinting away from a 21-58 Kings team that just got dismantled by 29 points in their last outing, the data suggests this is the optimal time to buy low.
The beauty of this system lies in its ability to capitalize on market exhaustion.
The Kings arrive in San Francisco as a "Recent Dog" having been spotted points in nearly every matchup over the last month. They are also currently on a "Losing Streak" both straight up and against the spread after their 138-109 blowout loss to the Clippers on Sunday.
Historically, when a road underdog is coming off an embarrassing ATS failure, the line for their next game becomes inflated as bookmakers bake in the public’s recency bias. We are seeing that here with a 14.5-point spread.
While Sacramento is clearly the inferior team on paper, the system recognizes that the margins in the NBA are rarely as wide as a two-week-old perception suggests — especially against a Golden State team that is currently mired in a four-game losing streak of their own.
Despite the disgusting look of the Kings' record, they showed signs of life last week with back-to-back wins over the Raptors and Pelicans before the Clippers' buzzsaw hit them.
With distractions limited on the road and the motivation to end the season with some semblance of pride, this young roster — led by development-minute players — is in a prime "bounce-back" spot.
The Warriors haven't covered a spread in over a week; asking them to win by 15+ points in their current form is a tall order that the system is happy to fade.
Pick: Kings +14.5 (-115)
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Mavericks vs. Clippers Prop Pick
The Los Angeles Clippers host the Dallas Mavericks tonight in a matchup where our Action PRO models see a significant discrepancy in the player prop market, specifically regarding John Collins.
While the Mavericks are largely in evaluation-mode to end the season, the Clippers are fine-tuning their rotation for the postseason, and Collins has emerged as a primary beneficiary.
Collins is currently playing his best basketball of the season. He has scored 15+ points in four straight games, a stretch that includes a 25-point outburst against Sacramento and a 22-point performance against Milwaukee.
Since returning from a neck strain in mid-March, he has looked explosive, shooting 55.6% from the field and finding a rhythm as both a lob threat and a floor spacer.
Interestingly, Collins moved to the bench in his last outing to accommodate a small-ball lineup featuring Kawhi Leonard at the four. Far from a demotion, this allowed Collins to feast on second-unit defenders, where he tallied those 25 points in just 24 minutes.
The Mavericks have struggled to contain athletic bigs all season, particularly those who can score in transition. With Dallas prioritizing the evaluation of young developmental pieces, the interior defense lacks the veteran discipline required to slow down a veteran of Collins' caliber.
Given his current form, 11.5 feels like a number based on his early-season averages rather than his current high-octane production.
Whether he starts or anchors the bench unit tonight, his usage rate remains high enough to breeze past this low total. Our models project Collins to finish with 13.5 points, providing a comfortable two-point cushion over the current market total of 11.5.
Pick: John Collins Over 11.5 Points (-115)
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Thunder vs. Lakers Prop Bet
The Los Angeles Lakers return to Crypto.com Arena tonight to host the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in a game where the Lakers’ depth will be tested once again.
With the superstar duo of Luka Doncic (Hamstring) and Austin Reaves (Ankle) both ruled out, the offensive burden shifts heavily toward the interior.
Our Action PRO models have identified a significant edge on Deandre Ayton, who is primed for an increased role in the Lakers' short-handed rotation.
When Doncic and Reaves are off the floor, the Lakers lose roughly 52 points per game of offensive production. Ayton has historically been the primary beneficiary of these absences, seeing his field goal attempts climb as the Lakers move away from their perimeter-heavy Luka-ball and lean into a more traditional inside-out attack.
With fewer playmakers to create their own shots, expect the Lakers to feed Ayton early and often in pick-and-roll and post-up situations.
Ayton has already been heating up regardless of the injury report. He has scored 12+ points in three of his last four games, showing a high level of efficiency near the rim. Over this stretch, he is shooting a blistering 61.4% from the field.
At a 10.5-point total, we only need an average night from Ayton to clear the mark — but with the additional volume expected, he has a much higher ceiling.
While the 61-win Thunder are elite defensively, they have occasionally been vulnerable to physical, traditional centers who can score in the mid-post.
With OKC likely focusing their defensive pressure on the Lakers’ remaining shooters like Luke Kennard and Cam Reddish, Ayton should find himself in plenty of single-coverage situations where his size advantage is palpable.
Pick: Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 Points (-120)
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Rockets vs. Suns Total Prediction
I’m going back to the well again and taking the Over in Suns-Rockets. This has been a consistent pattern for me lately; I’ve been on almost every one of these Rockets overs since Reed Sheppard moved into the starting lineup, and the market signals continue to back me up with steady upward movement.
A lot of people wanted to point to the Rockets' mid-season offensive struggles as a sign that the system was falling apart without VanVleet or Steven Adams, but I saw it differently. To me, those "woes" were just bad shooting splits. You had Dorian Finney-Smith and Tari Eason out there like construction workers laying bricks every time they hoisted a three.
Now that the shots are falling and Sheppard is steering the ship, this team is playing incredibly fast.
On the other side, the Suns are finally healthy, which changes their entire ceiling. Having Grayson Allen back in the rotation alongside Jalen Green and Devin Booker gives them a massive amount of three-point gravity.
I especially like the way they’re using Kevin Durant now — getting him moving downhill rather than just letting him get bogged down in post-ups where the defense can shade over.
Plus, having Colin Gillespie orchestrate the second unit creates a much more disciplined, open-look offense when the starters rest.
This game opened at 217.5 and has already been steamed up to the 219.5/220.5 range. Even with that movement, I still see a massive edge. I price this game closer to 222.5 or 223.
Between the Rockets' pace and the Suns' healthy shooting weapons, this should be an Over-spot.
Pick: Over 220.5 (-110)
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