Warriors vs. Clippers NBA Odds & Picks: Target Total in Primetime Showdown Out West (Thursday, March 11)

Warriors vs. Clippers NBA Odds & Picks: Target Total in Primetime Showdown Out West (Thursday, March 11) article feature image
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Sam Forencich/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Golden State Warriors standouts Steph Curry and Draymond Green.

  • The Golden State Warriors make the short trip south Thursday to face the Los Angeles Clippers.
  • Steph Curry and the Warriors are a flat 18-19 against the spread and 15-22 to the over this season.
  • Matt Trebby breaks things down and details why he's targeting a play on the total below.

Warriors vs. Clippers Odds

Warriors Odds +7.5 
Clippers Odds -7.5 
Moneyline +260 / -350
Over/Under 231.5
Time 10 p.m. ET
TV TNT
Odds as of Thursday morning and via BetMGM.

What a way to get the NBA going again with full steam.

The Golden State Warriors head to Hollywood to take on the Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday to start second halves of their seasons.

The Warriors and Clippers are dependent on their star players, with the difference between the two being the fact Los Angeles has many this season. Still, the first half of the campaign ended poorly for the Clippers, who face many questions about their championship credentials as play restarts.

Let’s break down where the betting value lies in this primetime matchup.

Golden State Warriors

Even after Klay Thompson tore his Achilles tendon during the buildup to this NBA season, it was assumed the Warriors would return to form as an offensive juggernaut with a healthy Stephen Curry.

Wrong.

Golden State is 18-19 against the spread (ATS) this season and just 15-22 to the over, mostly due to the idea that this is some offensive juggernaut.

The Warriors finds themselves a half game behind the eighth-seed Dallas at 19-18, and the fact that record isn’t much, much worse is thanks to their defense. Golden State ranks sixth this season in Defensive Rating at 108.8, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and that number is 106.9 over its last 10 games, which is second in the league behind the Phoenix Suns.

That’s not to say Curry hasn’t been fantastic this season, because he has. The greatest shooter of all-time is averaging 29.7 points per game, while hitting 47.8% from the field and 41.1% from 3-point range. Curry is also averaging 6.3 assists and 5.5 rebounds.

The problem with Golden State’s offense is a staggering lack of depth. The Warriors have four players averaging double-digit points per game in Curry, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre Jr. and James Wiseman, who has missed 11 games due to injury thus far.

Curry’s Usage Percent is 11th in the NBA among players who have appeared in at least 25 games this season at 30.8%, according to NBA Advanced Stats, and frankly that needs to be higher.

Wiggins and Oubre are shooting 35.1% and 32.1% respectively from beyond the arc, and the Warriors’ second-most-important player — Draymond Green — is no longer much of a scoring factor. Green’s 23.7% rate from beyond the arc is the lowest since his rookie season.

Oubre and Green do thrive defensively, though, and Golden State’s strong play on that end will have to continue, while it improves offensively, if the Warriors are going to be a factor in the playoffs.

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Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers start the second half in fourth place in the Western Conference at 24-14, a mark that is a big disappointment, especially with how they went into the All-Star break.

Los Angeles lost four of its last five games in the first half, with those defeats coming against Memphis, Milwaukee, Boston and Washington. During those five games, the Clippers rank 21st in Offensive Rating; 22nd in Defensive Rating; and, 24th in Net Rating. They’ve been subpar across the board.

Obviously, the Clippers are a two-man show with Paul George and Kawhi Leonard leading the way. Lou Williams has been their third-leading scorer at 16.3 points per game since the start of February, but a lack of options is starting to become a concern.

It doesn’t help that Luke Kennard is all but out of head coach Ty Lue’s rotation after giving him a four-year contract worth $64 million in the offseason. Marcus Morris is averaging 13.1 per game, but after that, it’s Serge Ibaka and Patrick Beverley, two guys you don’t want to be relying on to score.

Los Angeles will be fine as long as George and Leonard remain on the court, at least for the rest of the regular season. Whether the Clippers can beat the Los Angeles Lakers or Utah Jazz in the postseason is another story.

Warriors-Clippers Pick

Given Golden State’s defensive prowess and the Clippers’ porous offense, the total is intriguing. It currently sits at 231.5 points, which isn’t a massive number, but I’ll back the under given the quality of both defenses.

Pick: Total Under 231.5 points

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