NBA Odds and Picks (Tuesday, August 4): Magic vs. Pacers Betting Predictions
David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: T.J. Warren
Magic vs. Pacers Betting Odds
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|Magic odds||+1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Pacers odds||-1.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+102/-120 [BET NOW]|
|Time||6 p.m. ET|
The Magic and the Pacers face off on Tuesday with the Pacers on the second leg of a back-to-back. Will the quick turnaround impact this matchup? Let’s break it down.
The Magic lost Jonathan Isaac to a torn ACL on Sunday — a tough blow for the young impact player and the team. However, the Magic know how to operate without him considering he missed 31 games earlier this season with a knee injury.
The Magic’s path to victory will be on the glass. They’re a top-five team at limiting their opponents’ offensive rebounds and second-chance points, and they secure 74.8% of their defensive rebounds.
T.J. Warren followed up his career performance of 53 points against the 76ers on Sunday with 34 points against the Wizards in Monday’s win, which brought his bubble total to 87 points over two games. It’ll be exciting to see if he can keep up this pace in his expanded role in the absence of Sabonis.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Over the Magic’s past 10 games, they’ve been excellent — they have the fourth-best net Rating in the league (+5.6). However, over that same stretch, the Pacers have been better than the Magic with the second-best Net Rating (+6.6).
They’ve have done this by having top-seven effective field goal percentages (57.5% for the Magic, 55.2% for the Pacers), top-10 turnover percentages (13.3 and 13.5, respectively), and by limiting opponent’s second-chance points.
Can either team sustain this pace?
The Pacers show less variance than the Magic when comparing to numbers from the entire season. Overall, the Pacers have a higher net rating than the Magic (2.1 vs -0.8). A major factor is that the Magic’s eFG% drops by more than 7% over the course of the entire season while the Pacer’s is less than 2% different. That means the Magic have been shooting disproportionately well over their last 10 games.
Looking even closer, the Magic have a 61.2% eFG% in the bubble. They’re due for some regression shooting the basketball, and the Pacers are the seventh-best team at limiting opponents’ eFG%.
The Magic and Pacers are 2-0 in the bubble and both will try to remain undefeated.
Per BetLabs, it’s not been profitable to bet the Magic as moneyline dogs this season as they are 8-27 straight-up (SU) in that situation. A $100 bettor would be down $1,267 this season.
On the flip side, the Pacers are 34-13 SU as a favorite and a $100 bettor would be up $435 on the season.
THE PICK: Pacers -130 (up to -150)