NBA Thursday Betting Picks & Angles (Nov. 7): How to Bet Heat vs. Suns, Blazers vs. Clippers
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Damian Lillard
- Matt Moore is see betting value in two matchups in particular tonight: Heat-Suns and Blazers-Clippers.
- Below he'll give both picks and dive into the angles leading to the value.
Here are two betting angles for Thursday’s slate based on matchups and trends.
Odds as of Thursday at 11 a.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
THE ANGLE: The Public Is Still Behind on the Suns’ Emergence
The Suns are undefeated against the spread to start the season. That’s as much a signal of where the market and public are with the Suns as their performance. What’s more, the public has been on the Suns only once this season — vs. the Grizzlies, via Sports Insights.
The Suns opened as a pick ’em vs. the Heat, who are coming off a beating from the Denver Nuggets Tuesday night, and it moved quickly to Suns -1.5. But that was with 50% of the bets on Miami. It was the money that moved it: 70% of the early money Wednesday night came in on the Suns, moving it 1.5 points.
There’s a good chance it moves further toward the Suns, although it has settled back at 1 as of Thursday morning.
On the basketball side, something stood out in Miami’s profile going into this week. The Heat led the league in two categories entering Tuesday’s demolition by Denver. They were No. 1 in Net Rating (now 4th). They were also No. 1 in turnover rate (as in, they turned the ball over the highest percentage of their possessions). They are still No. 1 in that category.
Now there’s Phoenix. The Suns are No. 1 in points off turnovers per 100 possessions created, and they allow the 12th fewest.
The Suns have played a tough home schedule and have gone 3-1 with a +8.2 Net Rating. The Heat’s Net Rating is built almost entirely on their home performance, boosted by the ass-kicking they gave the Rockets last weekend when Houston was, ahem, in South Beach for the weekend.
The Suns are still underrated and the Heat are a bit overrated to start the season. The money is a reflection of that, and the number could get bigger prior to game time.
THE PLAY: Suns (-1), Suns over 109.5 team total [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
THE ANGLE: Don’t Overreact to Dame
The Clippers are living on that opening week right now. They beat the Lakers in an impressive performance in the first game of the season and then annihilated the Warriors before we realized the mess that the Warriors were in.
If we look at the profile of the teams the Clippers have beaten — the Spurs, Hornets, Warriors, Lakers and Jazz — four of those five are teams outside the top 13 in Offensive Rating. The Warriors are the exception, and they put up 122 on the Clippers.
In short, they struggle vs. teams that can actually get in a shootout with them. (See: The loss to Milwaukee Wednesday night.)
Don’t get suckered by the back-to-back thing for the Clippers — that’s factored into the line; this is probably -7-ish on rest for the Clippers. Now, let’s look at that number. The Clippers are better than the Blazers, but giving more than two possessions to a prospective playoff team is high.
Then you have to factor the overreaction to Portland losing to Golden State. The reality is that the Warriors are going to win some games this season. They just are. They’re not going to go oh-fer, and they won’t all be wins vs. the Knicks and whoever else.
The Blazers getting caught isn’t all that surprising given the injury to Zach Collins, their general state of injuries and being on the road in an outlier Eric Paschall performance, even if the youngster is very good. (And he seems very good.)
The early money is coming in on Portland, so this may get shorter as it goes. Having Kawhi Leonard back certainly makes a difference, but the other guys did play the night before. There’s no travel, and that factors in, but even with that accounted for in the line, it’s a little long for the Clippers.
Hassan Whiteside had 22-17 last season in his lone game vs. the Clippers. The Clippers’ one weakness is their interior defense. Ivica Zubac’s numbers are excellent but the eye test doesn’t quite match it, and Montrezl Harrell is slightly undersized.
The Clippers should win, and if you’re looking for a team to fill out a round-robin it’s not a bad choice. But the number is too much of a reaction on all sides. If it moves to Clippers -4, I’m much more interested in that side, but at the opening number I think there’s value on the Blazers.
The Play: Blazers +5.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]