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NBA DFS Picks (Fri. 11/30): Shorthanded Teams Provide Value on Loaded Slate

Nov 30, 2018 4:49 PM EST
  • The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
  • To read full fantasy breakdowns for every NBA DFS slate this year, check out the FantasyLabs link below.

See the full version of this piece at FantasyLabs.

Friday features an 11-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.

Power Forward

Stud

Anthony Davis started slowly in his last game but still managed to finish with 58.25 DraftKings points in just under 34.5 minutes. He’s posted a positive Plus/Minus in eight of his past 10 games on DraftKings, with the two exceptions being a game vs. the Spurs – who have basically been his personal kryptonite over the past few seasons – and a game he briefly exited vs. the Knicks. There’s no reason to expect anything different today vs. the Miami Heat, and his $11,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%. The presence of Harden and Westbrook should also result in slightly lower ownership than usual.

Value

Alec Burks is expected to make his debut for the Cavaliers today, but that shouldn’t do much to lower the stock of Larry Nance Jr. He’s started each of the past two games for the Cavaliers and has averaged 37 minutes per game in those contests. He’s averaged 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season, and he remains affordable across the industry for today’s matchup vs. the Celtics.

Fast Break

Markieff Morris is another member of the Wizards who deserves attention today. He’s scored at least 31.75 DraftKings points in four straight games and has played at least 32 minutes in each of his past two, and that was with Porter and Green playing in both contests. He could see an even larger role if both players are inactive today, and he owns an elite Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.07 vs. the 76ers.

Stacking the Morris twins is definitely a viable option. Marcus Morris should also see a bump in playing time with Brown and Horford out of the lineup and has seen a team-high usage increase of +4.8% with both players off the floor. He’s particularly appealing on FanDuel, where his $5,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.

Center

Stud

There are lots of studs to choose from today, but don’t forget about Joel Embiid. He has an elite matchup vs. the Wizards, who have been the worst rebounding team in the league with Howard off the floor this season. He has the potential to dominate their big men in the post, and his average of 1.56 FanDuel points per minute trails only Westbrook’s mark on today’s slate.

Value

Cody Zeller doesn’t offer much in terms of ceiling but has been really reliable over the past month on DraftKings. He’s posted a Consistency Rating of 91% over that time frame, including an average Plus/Minus of +6.59 over his past nine games. He remains a nice value on DraftKings, where his $4,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.

Fast Break

Aron Baynes will likely draw the start at center for the Celtics today vs. the Cavs. That makes him an intriguing option at just $3,200 on DraftKings, especially considering his average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute this season. He figures to be one of the best points-per-dollar options on today’s slate.

Steven Adams has failed to return value in each of his past two games, but this could be an excellent time to buy low on him. His salary has decreased to $7,000 on FanDuel, and he has one of the best matchups of the day vs. the Atlanta Hawks. They’ve been crushed on the glass all season, giving Adams an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.19.

Click here to read the full breakdown at FantasyLabs.

Credit:

Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Markieff Morris and John Wall

Follow Matt LaMarca on Twitter
@MattLaMarca

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