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The NBA returns in full force on Tuesday with three juicy, drama-filled matchups.
The Spurs take on the Thunder in a rematch of the Western Conference Finals that sent the Spurs to their first Finals appearance in 12 years, while the Knicks raise the banner in front of the Sixers’ superteam of All-Star talent. However, we begin the day with a heavyweight Eastern Conference clash between the Celtics and Pistons.
The drama. The excitement. The line moves and closing line value! It’s all happening as the NBA returns. Let's get into my NBA predictions and expert bets for Tuesday, October 20.
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NBA Expert Bets for Tuesday, October 20
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Celtics vs. Pistons
Pistons +1.5
This really just comes down to a power rating play for me. I actually have the Pistons power-rated higher in this spot. I make this line Detroit -2.8, so I just think the Pistons are good enough to be favored in this matchup on their home floor.
I want to be very clear: I think Boston is a great basketball team. I am high on the Celtics, and these are my two top teams in the Eastern Conference right now, but I am not predicting any sort of fall-off from Detroit.
I loved the Pistons' offseason moves. I think John Collins is a significantly better player for the system that they run than Tobias Harris was, even though I respect Toby.
Isaiah Joe is a sneaky, brilliant addition because he provides real, pure spacing around Cade Cunningham in those bench minutes. Ausar Thompson looks much better on the ball than he did last year, and any concerns I had about Jalen Duren's conditioning vanished when he showed up in the preseason and destroyed everything in his path like Godzilla.
I love the center matchup for Detroit here. I lean toward Cade over both of Boston's guards, and I think Detroit's length matches up well from a pure physicality standpoint.
I know Boston has an inherent math advantage because Detroit traditionally doesn't take enough threes, but I expect that gap to be mitigated by the roster tweaks they've made.
Getting points at home with Detroit is tremendous value.
Pick: Pistons +1.5 (-115)
Click here to read Matt Moore's full Celtics vs. Pistons preview for today!
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76ers vs. Knicks
Knicks Moneyline (-160)
I will take continuity over star power. The Sixers have played together for a little less than three weeks. There’s just a lot to figure out on both ends. You have to figure out tendencies of your teammates. Where they want passes, high or low. What angles they take off screens. How high or low they flare.
Then there’s the defense. Calling out new terminology. Managing new scheme rules. It’s clunky. It takes time to figure these things out, and the modern NBA preseason simply doesn’t allow enough practice time.
The Knicks need none of that. They know who they are, they know who their teammates are, and this is their night.
Little secret: Madison Square Garden? Not actually that loud. It doesn’t stack up with OKC, Portland, or San Antonio. But for this game, the emotions will be almost tangible, and while that can sometimes be a bad thing, for a team celebrating its coronation in their primes, it should work out just fine.
The Knicks know how to manage the Maxey-Embiid pick-and-roll, and they have the isolation defenders to bother Jaylen Brown. LeBron James might present the biggest challenge, but the man is 42.
I’m going against my power rating that has the Knicks as only a two-point favorites, but that’s why I’m playing ML and not spread.
I think New York will find a way to get this one done, while the Sixers try to figure out exactly how they’re going to make this work.
Under 231.5
My Under play is based on the Sixers’ inexperience together, the Knicks’ emotions, and simple trends.
The average total in Tuesday night openers since 2021 is 226.5 (typically between good to great teams facing rivals or in big games).
This line is as much as six points higher in the market. Tuesday night openers have trended Over in the last few years — but historically, they are a strong Under play.
I think the offenses will take some time to gel.
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points
Jalen Brunson has gone over this line in four of his last five matchups against Joel Embiid.
The Sixers will play a deep drop coverage in pick-and-roll against Brunson, because they have to. In doing so, they will give Brunson all sorts of space to both pull-up, hit floaters, and slam on the breaks to draw fouls and get to the line.
Maxey will struggle to keep him in front, and the Sixers don’t have good bench counters for him, either.
Oh, and key role players like Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons are questionable for Philly here.
Picks: Knicks Moneyline (-160) | Under 231.5 (-110) | Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points
Click here to read Bryan Fonseca's full 76ers vs. Knicks preview for tonight!
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Thunder vs. Spurs
Thunder +1.5
This line has moved the Thunder’s way, and while I make the number close to the same here, I like OKC in a revenge spot.
The Spurs went seven games with OKC in last year's playoffs, and the Thunder were missing Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell, meaning they were without both secondary ball-handlers.
Meanwhile, the Spurs are starting their three-guard trio who haven’t really spent much time on the floor together. Tobias Harris is out with a calf strain and they’re working on a new rotation.
The Thunder know how to play with this group and will bring better offensive firepower to the table. Not only do I like OKC, but I also lean towards an alternate spread in case they blow out the Spurs in this game.
Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
I’ll also play Julian Champagnie to make over 1.5 three-pointers based on OKC’s proclivity for giving up the long-ball, specifically corner threes — and how often they left Champagnie open in the playoffs despite his gaudy percentage.
Picks: Thunder +1.5 | Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made
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