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The NBA grind begins on Tuesday, and our Action Network staff has you covered from every angle. We've pooled our top analysis and broken down the board to bring you our favorite sides, totals, and player props for today's slate.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 20.
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NBA Predictions for Tuesday, October 20
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
  | 7:00 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Celtics vs. Pistons
Celtics Moneyline (-112)
I am playing the Celtics on the moneyline here, and this really comes down to pure market pricing and line value. We actually just did a daily strategy podcast where we talked extensively about the value of half-points and what line movements are truly worth. Sometimes the moneyline is a significantly better price than the spread, and vice-versa.
This game is a textbook example of that. At DraftKings, the moneyline on the Celtics is -112, but the spread is Celtics -1.5 at -105 juice.
There is a 7.7-cent gap between laying the points and just buying the insurance to take them straight up on the moneyline. That difference is actually worth 12 cents in true probability, which means you are saving 5 cents of value just by grabbing the moneyline outright.
In a vacuum, you are incentivized to play the moneyline here. As for the basketball side of things, I think 48 minutes of lengthy, athletic, strong-rebounding bigs from Boston will be a decent neutralization factor against Jalen Duren inside.
I do have a slight downgrade factored in for Boston's home-court advantage given the bizarre 3:00 p.m. ET start time. In a blue-collar city like Detroit on a Tuesday afternoon, the crowd is going to be somewhat neutralized.
This is also a travel spot for Boston, but their net rating with this core group is just so phenomenally strong — and I expect Paul George to slide in seamlessly alongside their established stars.
I trust the Celtics' starters to win their minutes, so I will gladly take the ML value.
Pick: Celtics Moneyline (-112)
Cade Cunningham 34+ Points & Assists (-107)
By Joe Dellera
I absolutely love Cade Cunningham this year, and I think he is primed for a big season.
Detroit made a concerted effort in the offseason to finally surround Cunningham with shooting. That added spacing is going to be huge; it should not only help him get to the rack much more effectively, but it also allows him to drive and kick to legitimately good shooters rather than just dumping it off to Tobias Harris.
Looking at this specific matchup, Cunningham was great against Boston last season, and the roster changes the Celtics have made don't necessarily make them a better defensive team.
From a pure scheme perspective, I expect Boston to remain relatively static in conceding above-the-break threes. That is a spot on the floor where Cade thrives—not only is he perfectly capable of diming to his shooters out there, but he also scores from that area himself.
I expect a big game from Cade here.
Pick: Cade Cunningham 34+ Points & Assists (-107)
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76ers vs. Knicks
Over 231.5 (-110)
I will qualify this as a one-star lean because the market value has dried up a bit — but I am taking Over 231.5 in Knicks-Sixers tonight.
I originally grabbed this at 228.5 weeks ago when these lines first started coming out. It actually steamed all the way up to 233.5 before working its way back down to where it sits now.
I still lean toward the over, but the market number is pretty sharp at this point.
From a basketball perspective, the Sixers' offense really started to click last year when they were finally willing to leave Joel Embiid in the dust and just run the floor in transition. They essentially told him that if he couldn't cross half-court by the time they got a shot up, that was fine.
With a core of VJ Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, Tyrese Maxey, and LeBron James, I fully expect Philadelphia to run out in transition constantly.
The Knicks are not going to just sit back; they are going to counteract that pace and push the tempo in their own transition opportunities.
I also have a massive amount of faith in the Sixers' bench unit to score points. The combination of Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons should provide excellent floor spacing, and they are going to be able to shoot the lights out against second units.
I think there is a bit of an overreaction in the betting markets right now regarding the new league rules emphasizing hand-checking and illegal screens. The market is pricing in a big drop in efficiency, but the talent on the floor here should be able to overcome it.
Pick: Over 231.5 (-110)
Jaylen Brown Over 20.5 Points (-120)
I am going right to Jaylen Brown to score over 20.5 points to start the year with his new squad in Philadelphia.
From everything we have learned about Brown over the course of his career, the data suggests that he internalizes external criticism and possesses a burning desire to prove people wrong.
I do not want to over-index too heavily on his preseason performances, but Brown is going to get his shot attempts up simply because he will mandate it. Whether the flow of the offense is better or worse, or whether they win or lose, Brown is going to put his thumbprint on the game.
It would not surprise me in the slightest if Brown came out and led this entire 76ers team in field goal attempts per game this season. In fact, if there were a betting market for it, he would probably be the favorite over Tyrese Maxey, as Maxey tends to be a bit more deferential and willing to delegate offensive responsibilities.
This is going to be an emotional atmosphere in Madison Square Garden for the Knicks' banner night. Jaylen Brown is the exact type of player who will feed off of that hostile energy.
I just think he is going to demand far too many shot attempts for me to confidently say he stays under 20 points. Even in a worst-case scenario where he has a miserable shooting night and goes 7-for-18 from the floor, the sheer volume of 21 or 22 shots should still carry him to the over.
Brown is going to get to the free-throw line, he is going to attack, and he is going to get his shots up hell or high water.
Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 20.5 Points (-120)
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Thunder vs. Spurs
Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points (-115)
Chet Holmgren is currently dealing with an injury and has essentially played zero preseason games, yet the market is fully pricing him into this opening matchup as if nothing is wrong.
Now, I wouldn't be completely surprised if he is ruled out for this game entirely. While he has been seen at the most recent Thunder practice getting some shots up, head coach Mark Daigneault was very evasive. He wouldn't speak to his actual availability and just offered a vague note that everyone did a little bit at practice.
I really just do not expect Daigneault to throw Holmgren onto the floor for 28 minutes right out of the gate after playing zero preseason basketball. If Chet does play, this is likely going to be a spot where he is on a strict minutes limit.
Holmgren averaged 28.9 minutes last season, but I think he is much closer to the 18 to 22-minute range for this game if he suits up at all.
The funny part to me is that Shams Charania just tweeted about the changes to NBA betting—how you can't parlay unders for certain players or guys projected to play under 12 minutes as an attempt to prevent further legal controversies.
I think it's all a vast overreaction to a few bad actors, but it took exactly zero games for me to find a spot where I would love to parlay all the unders for a single player.
Chet is obviously not rigging anything, but his minute restrictions make this a dream fade. Give me the under on 13.5 points.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points (-115)
Dylan Harper Over 23.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-130)
I am targeting the late slate here, and I want to get invested in everybody's favorite San Antonio guard, Dylan Harper. I am taking his over on Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA) at 23.5.
This is going to be a very popular bet now that it has been officially confirmed he is in the starting lineup alongside De'Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, and Victor Wembanyama.
There is a legitimate debate to be had about whether Julian Champagnie should be starting in place of Vassell for floor spacing, or if Harper should just take Fox's spot entirely — but the bottom line is that Harper is simply too good to continue bringing off the bench.
The Spurs recognize this, which is exactly why he is starting now.
When Harper plays, he commands a ton of usage. As long as he remains a starter for this entire season, I fully expect him to be second in total usage for this team behind only Wembanyama.
This play is exactly the kind of angle I look for during the opening week of the NBA season: early-season projection numbers that are just fundamentally too low. If Harper is as good as we all anticipate in year two, and he remains in the starting lineup, he should blow past this baseline.
I am jumping on this right away because I don't think he is going to live in the low-20s for PRA projections much longer. It is also a great rivalry matchup in which he thrived last year.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 23.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-130)
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