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We have an excellent 3-game slate on tap for opening day in the NBA, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Tuesday, October 20.
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NBA Player Props for Tuesday, October 20
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 9:30 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Celtics vs. Pistons
Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 Points (-120)
I am taking Payton Pritchard over 15.5 points, even in this bizarre afternoon game that is going to be playing in every bar in the country.
This play touches perfectly on the theme of identifying guys who are primed to vastly outperform their early-season projections. I truly believe we are going to see a ton of 20-point games from Payton Pritchard this year.
I will stop short of saying he is going to average 20 points per game, but he is going to have massive spike weeks.
Without Jaylen Brown on the roster, there is an enormous void in offensive usage, and it isn't going to be swallowed up by just one person.
Yes, Jayson Tatum will absorb a lot of it, and Paul George fits in nicely, but Pritchard is probably going to be the player who is going to statistically level up the most relative to the non-stars on this Celtics team.
This 15.5 line is a number that I expect him to exceed very often early in the year, to the point where we will start seeing his prop line move up to 17.5 or 18.5 quickly.
I don't care if Detroit ends up being a really good defense; Pritchard is going to find ways to get to his three-point shot.
With Tatum commanding so much defensive focus, Pritchard should get a steady diet of clean pull-up looks.
Whether he ultimately starts or operates as the definitive sixth man leading the second unit, his opportunity share is undeniable.
From a pure shot-creation and three-point volume standpoint, the Celtics desperately need him. He benefits the most from Brown's departure, and this starting number is simply too low.
Pick: Payton Pritchard Over 15.5 Points (-120)
Celtics vs. Pistons
Paul George Over 7.5 Rebounds & Assists (-114)
Paul George is not the same player that he used to be back in his heyday, and he's certainly a downgrade from Jaylen Brown, but his role is still going to be really strong in Boston.
George shot the ball poorly in the preseason, but in 24.5 minutes per game, he averaged 9 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4 assists, while getting up 10 shots and 7 3-pointers per game.
PG is going to fill a good chunk of the secondary role behind Jayson Tatum, and he's a sneaky-good fit in the Joe Mazzulla scheme.
Pick: Paul George Over 7.5 Rebounds & Assists (-114)
76ers vs. Celtics
OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points (-130)
By Joe Dellera
The Knicks are back, baby — and I am going right to OG Anunoby to go over 16.5 points in this matchup.
Anunoby took a real leap as a scorer last season, developing into a sniper from deep.
While Philadelphia may be able to score with anyone, I simply do not trust a brand-new group of players to have crisp defensive rotations together on opening night — and that lack of early-season defensive chemistry sets OG up perfectly in two distinct ways.
First, he is going to get extra looks from beyond the arc when the Sixers' help defense is inevitably late. Second, when those late closeouts do come and they get sloppy, it is going to open up clear lanes for him to put the ball on the deck and attack.
Anunoby is exactly the kind of player who finds the gaps in a defense, and this specific Philadelphia unit should have plenty of them to exploit as they figure out how to play together.
The banner goes up tonight. I fully expect OG to get us to at least 17 points.
Pick: OG Anunoby Over 16.5 Points (-130)
76ers vs. Celtics
Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-106)
By Matt Moore
Jalen Brunson has cleared this line in four of his last five games against Joel Embiid.
Because of Embiid's presence, the Sixers are essentially forced to play a deep drop coverage in the pick-and-roll against Brunson. By sitting back in that drop, they are going to give him all sorts of space to operate—allowing him to comfortably pull up for jumpers, hit his signature floaters, and slam on the brakes to draw fouls and get to the free-throw line.
On the perimeter, Tyrese Maxey is going to struggle to keep Brunson in front of him, and Philadelphia simply doesn't have the reliable bench counters to throw at him defensively to slow him down.
To make matters worse for the Sixers' depth, key rotational pieces like Dean Wade and Anfernee Simons are currently listed as questionable.
I expect Brunson to exploit this drop coverage all night long and clear this number.
Pick: Jalen Brunson Over 26.5 Points (-106)
Thunder vs. Spurs
Dylan Harper Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
By Joe Dellera
The Spurs look like they are going to roll out a starting lineup of De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, Devin Vassell, and Victor Wembanyama.
From a pure schematic standpoint, that configuration significantly cuts down on their overall size on the floor.
Because of that lack of traditional size, San Antonio is going to need guys to step up on the glass, and Harper is an absolute ball hawk.
We saw his rebounding instincts on full display throughout the postseason, and now that he is officially a starter, I expect him to see somewhere around 30 minutes a night this season.
The numbers back this up. When Harper played 25 or more minutes, he averaged 4.9 rebounds per game, and during the playoffs, that number spiked all the way up to 6.2.
Given his expanded role and the Spurs' smaller starting five, I will gladly bite on this line tonight against OKC.
Pick: Dylan Harper Over 4.5 Rebounds (-130)
Thunder vs. Spurs
Julian Champagnie Over 1.5 3-Pointers Made (-160)
By Matt Moore
I am going to take Julian Champagnie over 1.5 three-pointers made, and I am perfectly fine laying the juice at -160. I'm trying to be much more assertive with taking these kinds of lines, and I want to bet a lot more three-point props this season.
This play really just comes down to the Thunder's overall defensive profile. Under head coach Mark Daigneault, their defensive philosophy has consistently been to pick a specific guy on the opposing team and leave him completely open, and it is almost always a corner shooter.
Last year, that guy was consistently Julian Champagnie when they faced San Antonio. The Thunder would just leave him wide open on the perimeter over and over again.
I want to be very clear that I want Champagnie strictly on this specific three-point number and not on his overall points or any other metric. You don't want to mess with points because of the uncertainty around the Spurs' rotation right now.
What if Tobias Harris gets upgraded from his calf injury? What if they start Champagnie but then pivot to playing someone else heavy minutes?
Despite all those rotation questions, I still think Champagnie is going to play a lot — and more importantly, he is going to get high-quality looks.
It is weird to say that the Thunder are arguably the most elite defense in the world, but they do give up a very high three-point rate by design. Their closeouts are great, but Champagnie has proven he is able to hit those open looks consistently against them.
The Thunder defense is going to have to make choices — and historically, OKC's choice has been to let Champagnie shoot.
