NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Matt Moore’s Bets for Knicks vs. Celtics, Jazz vs. Thunder & More

NBA Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Matt Moore’s Bets for Knicks vs. Celtics, Jazz vs. Thunder & More article feature image

Via Nathaniel S. Butler/Getty Images. Pictured: Marcus Smart #36 of the Boston Celtics looks on during the game against the New York Knicks on February 27, 2023 at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York.

Sundays in March for basketball are like Sundays in September for football. The NBA has resumed its Sunday quadruple-headers of marquee matchups, which means we’ve got a full slate to bet on, including some budding rivalry games and a key game in the race to the bottom of the standings. 

Here’s a look at what I’m betting on Sunday.

Suns at Mavericks

1 p.m. ET
The Bet: Suns ML +110, Mavericks Team Total Under 116.5, Devin Booker Over 5.5 Assists

You can read my complete game guide here, but my favorite play is Devin Booker over 5.5 assists, and over 1.5 assists in the first quarter (-135). Booker has averaged 6.5 assists in the first two games with KD in the lineup, and in the starting unit, Booker is operating as the main engine and creator, not as the primary tip of the spear.

Warriors at Lakers

3:30 p.m. ET
The Bet: Lakers +5

Stephen Curry is back, and LeBron James is out, so this should be a romp. However, I just can’t get over how badly the Warriors have played on the road. Golden State is 9-21 ATS this season, tied with the 2019 76ers for the worst road ATS record since at least 2003.

The Lakers made a lot of roster improvements at the deadline, but not only is James out, but D’Angelo Rusell is out as well.

Even then, Golden State just simply has not deserved this respect on the road.

If we do even a four-point homecourt flip, which is extremely light this season and especially with Golden State, that makes this Warriors -9.5 at home. That’s too much.

I make this Lakers -2 on full season numbers. Even adding in Steph and taking away LeBron from those projections, I can’t get to Warriors -5.

I’ll hold my nose and bet the Lakeshow at home.

Spurs at Rockets

7 p.m. ET
League Pass
The Bet: Rockets -2.5

What could be more fun than a game this gross amidst all the marquee matchups? The two worst teams in the league will face each other with both teams on a back-to-back.

I’ll lay the points with the Rockets here. Houston’s a worse team in terms of where the franchises are, but the Spurs are so much worse in terms of on-court performance and talent level.

The big thing here, however, is the trend. Teams on a back-to-back with the second game at home are 43-29-2 (59.7%) ATS this season.

The Rockets are bad, but they’re a good bet here.

Jazz at Thunder

7 p.m. ET
League Pass
The Bet: OKC -6

OKC is 10-6 as a home favorite this season; they are remarkably good at home.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is not on the injury report so he should be back, while Lauri Markkanen is out with lower back soreness. Collin Sexton is also out.

I make this Thunder -4.5 at full strength for both teams, and Markkanen quite honestly is worth a full 2.5 points, at least, to the Jazz on his own. So I’m comfortable laying the six with OKC, and I’m good with it to 7.5.

Knicks at Celtics

7:30 p.m. ET
The Bet: Over 227.5 

Here’s a trend for you: in Celtics home games when Marcus Smart plays this season, the over is 16-6.

Smart is a lot more pivotal for the two Jays (Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown) and their offensive cohesion than you’d think. The market looks at Smart as a defensive player, but his offensive impact is overlooked this year when he’s shooting a career-high 34% from 3 with a career-high 6.8 assists per game.

The Knicks have enough interior scoring with Robert Williams out to keep pace, and Boston's offense is in a good spot for a bounce back after an embarrassing loss to the Nets on Friday.

I project this at 231.5, so I’ll back the over at whatever number is available come tipoff.

Grizzlies at Clippers

10 p.m. ET
The Bet: Over 228

No Ja Morant (suspension), no Dillon Brooks (suspension) and no Brandon Clarke (out the rest of the season with a torn Achilles) on top of no Steven Adams (injury).

What a brutal spot for the Grizzlies.

However, I would warn you not to mess with the side. The Grizzlies have shown they can win without Morant in recent seasons, and this is definitely a rally spot for them, on the road, vs. a familiar opponent and as an underdog.

The Clippers should absolutely not be laying that many points with how they’ve played with Russell Westbrook (0-5 straight up). If I had a side lean, it would be Memphis moneyline.

But instead I’ll look to the over. The Grizzlies’ defense is worse with Brooks off the floor this season, and Clarke's absence means there will be more offensive rebounds. Memphis will likely try and push pace here, and the Clippers have had a huge turnover problem, which helps feed the only way Memphis’ anemic offense can score.

It’s a soft bet, but I’ll back the over where either the Grizzlies light up the Clippers and give them another embarrassing loss, or the Clippers right the ship and put up a big number on the No. 2 team in the West.

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