Pistons vs. Cavaliers Odds & Picks: Big Value on the Total Wednesday Night
Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Collin Sexton.
- The Pistons and Cavaliers meet on Wednesday night in a battle of Eastern Conference teams.
- While neither had high expectations, the Cavaliers have been competitive and currently find themselves in playoff positioning.
- In the preview below, Matthew Trebby says to keep an eye on the under when looking for value in this matchup.
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Odds
|Moneyline||+126 / -148|
|Time||7 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
Both the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland Cavaliers had low expectations entering this season. Now, about one-quarter of the way through the season, one looks like it will be fighting for a playoff spot, while the other hopes the lottery will go its way.
While neither team is flashy, both are scoring very impressively this season and hitting overs left and right of late.
Let’s dig into this matchup.
The Pistons enter this game having won just once in their last five games and twice in their last eight. Losing stretches like that happen when you start the season 4-13.
After years of being just good enough to avoid being in contention for the No. 1 overall pick, Detroit is tied with the Timberwolves for the fewest wins in the NBA thus far.
The Pistons enter play on Tuesday with the No. 22 Net Rating, according to NBA Advanced Stats, so their record might be a little harsh. Detroit also ranks 22nd in both Offensive and Defensive Rating.
The Pistons are firmly below average. The problem for them this season is that there aren’t many teams that stand out as truly terrible. Being below average this season puts Detroit in the running for the worst team in the NBA.
The positives for Detroit this season begin with Jerami Grant, who wanted a bigger offensive role in free agency and got it in the Motor City. He’s averaging a very impressive 24.3 points per game while shooting 44.4% from the field and 38.8% from 3-point land.
Otherwise, the Pistons are relying on veterans like Derrick Rose, Wayne Ellington and Blake Griffin — their Nos. 2-4 scorers on average — to help carry the load. The biggest positive for them this season would be to see young players like Saddiq Bey, Sekou Doumbouya and Killian Hayes — who is set to miss at least the next eight weeks due to a hip injury — take strides forward this season.
Entering the season, most would’ve thought the Cavaliers would be down in the dumps with the Pistons this season.
That hasn’t been the case, though, thanks to a stout defense that has them at 8-9 and the No. 7 spot in the Eastern Conference entering Tuesday night.
The Cavaliers rank sixth in Defensive Efficiency this season, but that number has gone down over their past four games for a few reasons. One is the return of guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland, both of whom have improved an otherwise dormant Cleveland offense while providing less-than-ideal defense.
In Cleveland’s past four games, their Defensive Rating ranks 26th among the 29 teams to have played at least one game during that stretch. The Cavs did play Brooklyn twice, the Celtics (without Jayson Tatum) and the Lakers in that stretch, but such a dip in efficiency is startling.
The two games against Brooklyn were encouraging, as Cleveland came away with two wins thanks to a pair of impressive games from Sexton.
The total opened at 214.5, and it’s listed at 216 as I write this on Tuesday evening. That feels like books haven’t taken into account the past week of Cavaliers games, all of which have gone over.
The Pistons have gone over in 10 of 17 games this season, including five of their last six games.
The number is going up because there’s value on it. I’d play the over on this one up to 218.5.
Pick: Over 216 points