Bucks vs. Warriors NBA Odds & Picks: Bet This Tuesday Over (April 6)
Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo, James Wiseman
- The Warriors and Bucks have loved pushing the tempo this season — and hated playing defense.
- That's why the over is in play for Tuesday night's matchup in The Bay.
- NBA betting analyst Kenny Ducey previews the game and explains his pick.
Bucks vs. Warriors Odds
|Moneyline||-240 / +195|
|Time||Tuesday, 10 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Tuesday morning and via DraftKings|
After a slight hiccup, the Milwaukee Bucks are back to their dominant ways and have their sights set on yet another easy victory against the slumping Golden State Warriors.
In the Dubs’ defense, they’ve been dealing with injuries left and right over the past couple of weeks, but they should be close to full strength on Tuesday.
Will Golden State give Milwaukee a run at home, where it’s played some of its best basketball? Or will this one, like the last few, be academic for the Bucks? Let’s see if we can find some value on either side.
Since that five-loss streak in mid-February, life has been pretty good in Milwaukee. The Bucks have lost just four games over that span, winning 16-of-20. And after a mini three-loss streak last week, they’re right back to their winning ways, riding in with three wins in a row.
Despite all the success, the Bucks are still chasing the Nets and Sixers in the East. The Bucks sit two games back of first pace at 32-17, and will get two cracks at the Phillies in late April, then two at the Nets in early May. So, every win is crucial until those two-game series. The Bucks will want to remain two games back at the very least to those two-game sets can become decisive should they win three or four.
The last 10 games have featured some exceptional shooting from Milwaukee. The team’s hit on 40.1% of triples, ranking second in the league over that span, though as a whole it ranks just 11th in offensive and defensive efficiency. It’s true that offense has been an issue for Milwaukee despite the shooting, though the defense did pick up in wins over the Lakers and Blazers before caving against the Kings.
It’s also of note that the Bucks have been running at a pretty fast pace of late, ranking second in the NBA with a rating of 102.83, which is slightly higher than their third-best 102.35 pace rating for the season.
There’s a reason this total is so high.
Golden State Warriors
There’s another reason this total is so high, and it’s Golden State’s affinity for pushing the tempo as well — the Warriors are one of two teams that have a faster pace rating than the Bucks at 103.06, and over the last 10 games, the Warriors have maintained some degree of that style of play, ranking sixth in the metric.
The issue for the Warriors has been doing something with all those possessions. They’re scoring just 105.8 points over their last 10, and though over the course of the season they’ve played some solid defense, it hasn’t been there to save them of late — they rank 22nd with a 113.5 defensive rating over that span. Pushing the pace and creating more possessions has backfired in a big way.
One reason the Warriors’ offense has been hurting has been the absence of Stephen Curry, who has played in just three of their last nine games due to a tailbone injury. To his credit, the three games he’s played since his return have showcased a better brand of basketball; Golden State has been competitive in all of them, namely because of Curry’s 30-plus points. The Warriors managed to win just one of those games, and against much worse competition than the Bucks.
I say all of this without even acknowledging the Warriors’ 53-point loss to the Warriors in the absence of Curry and Draymond Green, because it’s not exactly a pleasant thing to re-visit. We know this is a bad team without those two, and thankfully they are expected to play on Tuesday.
I want to bet on the Warriors having a strong showing against the Bucks, but in no way do I want to mess around with this spread.
This leads me to the over.
Given how both of these teams love to push the tempo, the Bucks’ slight struggles on defense and how Curry has played over his last three games, I see no reason the Warriors shouldn’t be able to do their part to get to this over. When you mix in their awful, awful defense and the Bucks’ hot shooting, things could turn around for Milwaukee in a big way on that end as well.
Nine of the last 13 Bucks games have gone over the total, and the over has gone a whopping 29-19-1 in their contests this year. That should be enough to pull the Warriors with them over 232 points.
Pick: Over 234 (no further)