Suns vs. Mavericks NBA Odds & Picks: How to Bet the Total Based on Injury News
Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Phoenix Suns star Devin.
- The Suns hope to have Devin Booker back in the lineup for a matchup against Luka Doncic and the Mavericks.
- Matt Moore breaks down where the betting value lies, depending on whether Booker is active.
Editors note: Devin Booker has been cleared to return to the lineup Monday after missing the past four games due to a strained hamstring.
Suns vs. Mavericks Odds
|Moneyline||+102 / -120|
|Time||8:30 p.m. ET|
The losses are starting to pile up for the Dallas Mavericks who are 2-8 in their past 10 games and have lost five games in a row, most recently to the Phoenix Suns on Saturday. The Suns, however, are trending up and hoping to get their best player, Devin Booker, back in the lineup Monday after playing without him for the past four games.
Oddsmakers have this spread within one possession with the struggling Mavericks listed as short favorites at home. But I’m looking elsewhere to find some value between these two teams
Booker remains questionable for this game per our Action Labs injury dashboard. (Keep an eye on that tool to get the best value on the line or total once it has been announced that he’s in or out tonight).
It should be noted that Booker’s On/Off splits are relatively poor compared to what you would think for a star. The Suns have a net rating of +2.7 when he’s on the floor and +3.1 when he’s on the bench this season.
The Suns clearly are a better team with Booker, this more has to do with how the lineups operate. The Suns are 2-2 straight up and against the spread without Booker this season.
Phoenix took the last game from the Mavericks, but it was a fight. Dallas was on the second night of a back-to-back, won the first three quarters and took a lead into the fourth, when the Suns ran past an exhausted, shorthanded Mavs team, putting up 34 in the final frame to win by 6.
Phoenix boasts a top-five defense, which gives them an advantage against the Mavs who have (bizarrely) struggled to score this season after breaking records for scoring efficiency last season.
Dallas might actually be back to full health here. Maxi Kleber should play for the first time in weeks, and the team got the rest of their COVID protocol pack back for its last game.
However, we’re seeing a bit of a rust factor with teams that have guys returning or after delays. The Suns went 1-4 following their hiatus due to contact tracing.
Still, Kleber would be a big addition if he plays as expected. He gives them a pick-and-roll weapon, a bigger player to combat inside where Kristaps Porzingis has been awful, and a stretch big to space the floor.
This especially helps vs the Suns who run three wings with Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder and Mikal Bridges (or Booker if he’s active).
There have been signs Dallas is a good defensive team, but they simply have been dreadful scoring wise. That will likely turn at some point but it’s important to wait until the trend corrects itself first.
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The total has dropped seven points from open and the under is 11-8 in Mavericks games, 11-6 in Suns games.
When Booker plays, the Suns average 111 points, and that goes to 108 when he sits. If Booker plays, I lean towards the over. If he sits, I like the under here. This is a sharp enough line to where I think Booker makes the difference both with his offense and defensive issues.
Booker’s status aside, I do like the second quarter line for the Suns. Dallas is 10-10 this season in second quarters, and while they won the second in the last game vs. Dallas, it was an uncommon performance for both bench squads. If Booker plays, there are more minutes for a superior bench unit and Booker in the second has a +12 net rating, vs. a negative number in the first.
Pick: Over 219.5 if Booker plays (up to 222), under 219.5 if he sits | Suns second quarter ML