According to Cleveland's head coach, Kenny Atkinson, the Cavs have actually won two of the three games in this series—if you go by the analytics. Unfortunately for Atkinson, analytics aren't part of the record books when it comes to the official scores that are kept.
Moreover, NBA playoff teams that have lost the first three games in a series by 11 or more points are just 2-16 straight up in Game 4, with six straight losses in this spot. Thus, the Cavaliers will undoubtedly need some big performances from their key players if they're going to climb back into this series.
Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Props for Knicks vs Cavaliers Game 4
- 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell (+264) / Landry Shamet (+2200)
- Rebounds Leader: Evan Mobley (+548) / Jarrett Allen (+670)
Cavaliers vs Knicks 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell / Landry Shamet
Donovan Mitchell has easily been the Cavaliers' best player in this series. His 26 points per game are at least eight more than Cleveland's second-ranked scorer, Evan Mobley (17.7). And with Game 4 being a must-win for the Cavs, you'd have to think they'll be willing to live and die with the ball in Mitchell's hands.
As a result, it's no surprise the Cleveland guard is the favorite to finish with the most points at +134.
However, those odds aren't long enough for me, as I'd prefer at least 2-to-1 on my return. A better option would be to simply back Mitchell to finish with the most 3-pointers at +264.
His implied value is 22.2%, but my model simulations project a win share of 34.3%.
In other words, since Mitchell's odds should be closer to +190, we're getting a decent market opportunity given the current price.
Another player who could outperform his odds is New York's Landry Shamet. Shamet shot 39.2% from the perimeter this season, and he's a career 38.6% shooter.
In Game 3, he connected on four of his five 3-point attempts and is 7-of-8 from long range in this series.
The numbers suggest that Shamet is a legitimate perimeter threat, provided he gets the minutes on the floor. He played 28 minutes in Game 3, and if the Knicks continue to control this series, Shamet could yet again see an increase in his playing time off the bench.
Shamet's odds are priced at +2200, and considering how much both teams have struggled from distance, a short cameo might even be enough for him to finish with the most 3-pointers.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell (+264) / Landry Shamet (+2200)
Cavaliers vs Knicks Rebounds Leader: Evan Mobley / Jarrett Allen
The market continues to price the Knicks' Karl-Anthony Towns as a heavy favorite for most rebounds.
While there's no question that Towns has the best rebounding average in the series with 11.3, he's finished with the most rebounds in just one of the three games thus far.
Using a blended approach that incorporates performance in the current series, with previous rounds, the regular season, and playoff history, among other factors, Towns hasn't been dominant enough to justify the gap in price from the rest of the field with potential candidates like Evan Mobley (+548) and Jarrett Allen (+670).
Cleveland's home court has to count for something. And the fact that we can get two Cavs players with odds of better than 5-to-1 makes this play even more worthwhile.
My simulations indicate that Mobley (21.9% vs. 13.1%) and Allen (13.2% vs. 11.0%) can still outperform their book value, making the Cavs' frontcourt duo the perfect partnership to fade Towns.
Pick: Rebounds Leader: Evan Mobley (+398) / Jarrett Allen (+670)
