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Spurs vs. Jazz Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Utah Will Overpower San Antonio (May 5)

Spurs vs. Jazz Betting Odds, Prediction, Preview: Utah Will Overpower San Antonio (May 5) article feature image

Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert.

  • The Jazz are a big favorite over the Spurs on Wednesday night (9 p.m. ET, NBA TV).
  • San Antonio and Utah met on Monday, with the Jazz winning by 11 despite a poor shooting performance from distance.
  • Matthew Trebby breaks down this game and gives his Spurs vs. Jazz prediction below.

Spurs vs. Jazz Odds

Spurs Odds +7.5
Jazz Odds -7.5
Moneyline +240 / -300
Over/Under 220.5
Time Wednesday, 9 p.m. ET
Odds as of Wednesday and via BetMGM

The Utah Jazz are concluding a stellar regular season without guard Donovan Mitchell, although it appears they have a top-two seed locked up in the Western Conference. The San Antonio Spurs, meanwhile, are looking to improve their standing for the play-in tournament.

Utah is one-half game ahead of the Suns for the top seed out west. San Antonio seems safe to make the play-in tournament, although it might be as the 10 seed.

These teams have similar records of late, but one is clearly better. Let’s see where there’s betting value on Wednesday night.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are a weird team in the modern NBA.

Over its last 15 games, San Antonio is averaging just 27 3-point attempts. That’s second last in that span in the NBA.

That doesn’t mean the Spurs haven’t been efficient, though. They’re 11th in Offensive Efficiency in the league over their last 15 games. Despite a 7-8 record in the span, San Antonio has a 2.6 Net Rating, per NBA Advanced Stats.

DeMar DeRozan being your leading scorer makes sense when you attempt so few 3-point shots. DeRozan is averaging 0.9 attempts from deep over the Spurs’ last 15 games, but he’s shooting 49.3% from the field and averaging 24.6 points.

All that sounds like the Spurs would be a classic under team, but that’s not the case. They’ve actually gone over in four of their past five games with the lone under coming Monday in an 11-point loss to the Jazz.

Utah Jazz

Utah has been without Donovan Mitchell due to an ankle sprain for the past nine games, and the priority clearly is to make sure he’s healthy for the playoffs. He will be out against San Antonio and could miss another week.

Without Mitchell, Utah is 5-4 in those games, but have maintained the best Defensive Rating in the NBA during that span, as well as the fourth-best Net Rating.

Obviously, Utah is much different offensively without its dynamic All-Star playmaker. The Jazz average an NBA-high 43.2 3-point attempts per game on the season That number is up, but just to 44.3. That’s slightly surprising given Utah’s lack of playmaking without Mitchell, although the decrease in efficiency checks out.

The Jazz have won three of their past four games, going 2-2 against the spread. They’re also 2-2 to the over on the total.

It has been a team effort without Mitchell. Five Jazz players are scoring more than 14 points per game over their last nine games, although Mike Conley has only played in four since Mitchell went out. Bojan Bogdanovic leads the way at 21.6 points per game on 46% shooting and 38% from 3-point range. Jordan Clarkson has been inefficient on 18 attempts per game, shooting just 37.7%.

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Spurs-Jazz Pick

In these teams’ meeting on Monday, Utah defended extremely well. The Spurs shot 46.7% from the field and were just 5-of-18 from 3-point land. San Antonio was down by 17 at halftime, and that was that. The Jazz didn’t even shoot particularly well from deep going  11-of-36 from 3-point range.

We have the Jazz, who are 21-11 against the spread (ATS) at home this season, against the Spurs, who are the NBA’s best ATS team on the road at 21-9-1. The irresistible force meets the immovable, or something.

Something’s got to give, and I’m going to back Utah as home favorites. The Jazz’s 30% 3-point shooting on Monday night is below season average, and I’m going to bet on that improving. With the high amount attempts they take from beyond the arc, a better shooting night spells trouble for a Spurs team that struggles to keep up with hot-shooting opponents.

Utah has rewarded bettors all season, and I don’t anticipate it will end the season slowly, even without Mitchell. I got this at -7, but still like the current price.

Pick: Jazz -7.5

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