Moore: Notes, Trends for Every Game on NBA’s Black Friday Smorgasbord

Moore: Notes, Trends for Every Game on NBA’s Black Friday Smorgasbord article feature image
Credit:

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: LeBron James

It's Black Friday, the stores are open and you're still in a food coma. The good news? We've got an awesome slate of NBA action ahead to perk you up. Here are some notes and trends to know for each of tonight's games.


Rockets at Pistons (+4.5)

6 p.m. ET

  • The Rockets and Pistons faced each other with a 9.5-point line in favor of Houston earlier this week, and the Rockets barely hung on for the straight-up win as Detroit only lost by two. I'm big on fading the team that won when there are two games in a week, but Detroit came close enough to back off on that. Detroit's also 2-5 against the spread at home. That line actually represents a move up from Rockets -9.5 at home, but it's still within a safe range.
  • Houston had a tough loss vs. the Spurs back on the Nov. 10. They've been terrific ever since. Maybe it's removing Melo, maybe it's more Gary Clark, maybe it's a favorable stretch of matchups, but something happened. Not only are they 5-0 since, but they have the third-best net rating and a 124 offensive rating. Houston is back to cooking.
  • Blake Griffin is averaging 20-11-5 shooting 40 percent from the field. The only other player in NBA history to average that for a season is Larry Bird. We're fewer than 20 games in, so it's too soon to start talking about Blake being in rarified air or the MVP conversation, but man, what a start.
  • Lean: Rockets

Pelicans at Knicks (+7.5)

6:30 p.m. ET

  • Knicks are pesky, man. Alonzo Trier, Trey Burke, Damyean Dotson, they just have guys making things happen. They're bad, don't get me wrong, but they hang.
  • The Knicks are 2-1 against the spread as more than 7.5-point underdogs at home this year, the lone ATS loss to the Warriors when curry went berserk.
  • E'Twaun Moore is shooting 48.5 percent from 3-point range this season, and has the second best on-off differential of any Pelican behind Anthony Davis as the Pelicans outscore their opponent by 6.8 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. The next time someone says the Pelicans don't have anyone on the wing, punch them in the mouth.
  • Lean: Knicks

Celtics at Hawks (+8)

6:30 p.m. ET

  • Look, I took the Celtics over at 59.5 wins as my most confident preseason bet. But until they get this thing back on track, I'm not laying more than four points with them against anyone. The Knicks just led them the entire game. They are a mess right now.
  • The Hawks are actually outscoring opponents with John Collins on the floor. He's the only player who's playing more than 20 minutes for Atlanta where that's the case. Collins is springy and effective, which is why the Hawks just moved him into the starting lineup.
  • Trae Young can't shoot at all right now but he's one of fewer than 10 players to have more than 140 assists in his first 18 games, and he has the fifth most points of any of those players. If his 3-point shot comes around, watch out.
  • Lean: Hawks


Wizards at Raptors (-10.5)

6:30 p.m. ET

  • The Wizards are 0-4 ATS when more than 10 percent of the money is coming in on them relative to the percentages of bets made, per our Bet Labs data. Currently 66 percent of the bets are on Toronto but only 38 percent of the money. The sharps are going back to the well with Washington. The Wizards had that huge comeback the other night, but if they get down vs. Toronto, they're not coming out of it.
  • Pascal Siakam's spin move is one of the most fun things in the NBA right now.
  • Toronto is 1-4 ATS when it's a double-digit favorite at home this season, which was surprising. And yet, Wizards. I'm willing to extend out here on fading the Wizards until they prove they can not screw up for two games in a row.
  • Lean: Raptors

Heat at Bulls (+3.5)

7 p.m. ET

  • Nope, do not like this one bit. The Heat are 3-4 ATS on the road, and 4-7 ATS as favorites. The Bulls are 6-4 ATS at home. But that line is way too close for comfort.
  • What do the Heat do well at this point? They're a bottom-20 offense. They're 10th in defense, but three teams trail them by 0.5 points per 100 possessions, so they are on the edge of very middling. They're good at containing spot-up attempts, which usually translates to success, but they also give up the third-most points off turnovers which negates most of it. This team needs a reboot pretty badly.
  • It's hard not to watch the Bulls and realize how much of a difference Lauri Markkanen is going to make in pulling their disheveled, mess of a room together.
  • Lean: Stay away

Suns at Bucks (-13.5)

7:30 p.m. ET

  • When the Bucks have Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor, they beat teams by 19.5 points per 100 possessions. That's basically a nuclear weapon's blast wall. Run for your lives.
  • The Bucks are 2-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite, with their only loss when they were 9.5-point favorites vs. Memphis.
  • The Suns have been trying Booker at point, and a lineup of Devin Booker-Mikal Bridges-Trevor Ariza-DeAndre Ayton has a 120 offensive rating and a 20.6 net rating in 29 minutes. There is zero reason they went away from that vs. Chicago. I'll be very curious to see if it gets more run vs. the Bucks with their length.
  • Lean: Milwaukee

Magic at Nuggets (-8)

8 p.m. ET

  • Most of the bets are on Orlando here, which makes sense, the Magic are 9-6 ATS and 4-2 ATS on the road.
  • Denver struggles with big, athletic guys who can punch in lob dunks. That's Mo Bamba and Jonathan Isaac, who can also stretch the floor. They have a slippery point guard who's a veteran to give Jamal Murray issues. They have Aaron Gordon to counter Paul Millsap.
  • This matchup is so bad I don't hate the Magic moneyline at +300 here.
  • Speaking of Millsap, though, he's shooting 48-39-70 on shooting splits with a 19 PER. After a terrible start to the year, he turned it around in a hurry.
  • Lean: Magic

Jazz at Lakers (-2.5)

9:30 p.m. ET

  • My how the mighty have fallen. The Jazz are now underdogs to a Lakers team still trying to find itself. But this is a good matchup for the Lakers. LA has the size at center to contest on Rudy Gobert lobs and the defensive length to contest on closeouts.
  • However, the Lakers have two key problems defensively. One, Brandon Ingram is surprisingly terrible off-ball this year. He's good on-ball but off-ball, he just gets lost a lot. If they put him on Joe Ingles, that could get bad. Two, the Lakers have no one to throw at Donovan Mitchell. LeBron is not fast enough and not going to take that in November. That's not what he does. So it's either Ingram, which might work, or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, which likely does not.
  • Utah is such a mess on both ends, though, and its biggest problem is turnovers, which gets the Lakers out in transition.
  • Lean: Lakers

Blazers at Warriors (-2)

9:30 p.m. ET

  • FADE THE WARRIORS UNTIL STEPH GETS BACK.
  • FADE THE WARRRIORS UNTIL STEPH GETS BACK.
  • NO, SERIOUSLY, FADE THE WARRIORS UNTIL STEPH GETS BACK.
  • Lean: Blazers

I want no part with Hornets-Thunder (-6.5) or Spurs-Pacers (-2.5) with no Oladipo. Hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving.

How would you rate this article?

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.

Sportsbook Promos
See All
Legal Online Sports Betting

bet365 Promo Code TOPACTION: $150 Bonus or up to $1K Bet Insurance Available; $200 Live in NC for Thursday

Sean Treppedi
Mar 28, 2024 UTC