The NBA playoffs will kick off the second round with a pair of Game 1s today—Monday, May 4. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified a total of four best bets for tonight's games—including picks for Knicks vs. 76ers and Timberwolves vs. Spurs.
Continue below for our NBA picks, predictions, and best bets for Monday's playoff games.
NBA Picks, Predictions: Monday, May 4
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 9:30 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
76ers vs. Knicks Spread Pick
By Matt Moore
This handicap hinges on Joel Embiid’s health, and frankly, if he’s not 100% (or ends up sitting), this line is going to move significantly in my direction.
Embiid is officially listed as probable with a right hip contusion for Game 1 tonight, and while the report is silent on the knee issue, this is the Sixers we’re talking about. Usually, when the reporting suggests he’s good to go, that’s exactly when I start to think there’s no chance. I’m guessing the probability of him actually playing are around 60/40.
From a numerical standpoint, even if I model this out assuming Embiid is fully healthy, I still have the Knicks projected as 8.6-point favorites. That gives us over a point of edge against the current market. If the injury situation takes a turn for the worse before tip-off, I’m going to end up with some nice closing line value.
I'm not hell-bent on this play because of the volatility surrounding the Sixers' injury report, but I expect New York to protect home court and cover this number to start the series.
Pick: Knicks -7.5 (-108)
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Prop Bet
By Jim Turvey
The logic here is pretty simple: somebody has to score for the Timberwolves. The market seems to be pricing this line as if Anthony Edwards is leaning toward playing tonight, but I'm not so sure; he's been upgraded to questionable for Game 1.
With Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo dealing with injuries, Minnesota's offense is a mess, but the points have to come from somewhere, and Jaden McDaniels is one of the primary candidates to inherit that volume.
During the regular season, Jaden only averaged 15 points in 31 minutes. However, his minutes should continue to rise in this environment, with or without Ant, which will naturally expand his offensive responsibilities as well.
Jaden’s usage rate spikes to 24.2% when Ant and Donte are off the floor—and that’s even with guys like Ayo Dosunmu and Julius Randle in the lineup.
I’m projecting him closer to 20 points tonight. I know San Antonio brings a tough defense to the table, but I still think this line is too low given the uptick in usage he’s stepping into.
Pick: Jaden McDaniels Over 16.5 Points (-120)
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76ers vs. Knicks Prop Bet
By Joe Dellera
Josh Hart has been absolutely tremendous in this specific matchup, clearing this number in all three games against Philly this season. If you look at the long-term trend, he’s hit this in 15 of his last 17 games against Philadelphia. He just has a knack for "getting after it" when he sees the Sixers.
Honestly, I’m a little surprised we’re even getting this line 12.5. Earlier this season against Philly, his closing lines for this RA prop were 13.5, 13.5, and 14.5. We are getting a massive discount today, likely because his assist & rebound numbers dipped slightly at the tail end of that Atlanta series.
But a new series is a completely different animal, and his late-round dip in volume against the Hawks probably won't carry over here. I’ll gladly grab the over on a number Hart has consistently crushed.
Pick: Josh Hart Over 12.5 Rebounds & Assists (-120)
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Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spread Pick
By Matt Moore
Ant is back, and that changes the math immediately. We’ve been tracking this knee situation all day, and now that he’s expected to go, this line has predictably crashed. If you were holding that +13.5 ticket from earlier this morning, congratulations—you are sitting on a absolute gold mine.
Ant’s value to the spread is usually right in that 3-to-5 point window. Let's call it a flat four points. When he gets ruled in, the line teleports. We’ve seen it move to 10.5, and it might not be done moving yet.
I had this game modeled at 10.8 when we thought Ant was out. You bake in even a 75% version of Anthony Edwards, and this number probably belongs closer to 6 or 7.
My best bet for the series remains Spurs to win Game 1 / Wolves to win the series, and this news only reinforces that. I expect San Antonio to protect home court, but the Wolves are too disciplined to get blown out with their franchise player on the floor.
Keep an eye on this specific situational trend: road 'dogs in a Game 1 that didn't play a Game 7, but were home 'dogs in their last series closeout. They are a dismal 3-14 straight up, but they are a coin-flip 7-8-2 against the spread. They might not have the legs to win it, but they have the pride to keep it respectable. The number is still wrong. I’ll take the Timberwolves +10.5.
Pick: Timberwolves +10.5 (-114)
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