The NBA Play-In Tournament concludes with another high-stakes doubleheader tonight — Friday, April 17. Our staff of betting experts dug into the latest NBA odds and identified a total of six best bets spanning both of today's matchups: Hornets vs. Magic & Warriors vs. Suns.
Continue below for our NBA picks and predictions for Friday's play-in tournament games.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Friday's Play-In Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
| 7:30 p.m. | |
| 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Hornets vs. Magic First Half Moneyline Bet
When I look at this matchup from a pure basketball perspective, my brain keeps landing on the Hornets.
Honestly, the Magic look like dead men walking right now. Between the locker room turmoil and the widespread reports that this team has effectively quit on Jamahl Mosley, Orlando feels like a squad just waiting for the offseason to start.
While I’m not sure how much a "lame duck" coach narrative matters once the ball is tipped in a playoff environment, I am confident in the fact that Charlotte is simply the better team. They have proven it throughout the season, but they’ve struggled with one glaring issue: finishing games.
The Hornets are just 10-18 in clutch games (a 36% win rate), whereas the Magic—despite their dysfunction—actually win 62% of their close games. If this thing is tight in the fourth quarter, the Magic’s home-court advantage and clutch experience might actually pull them through.
But, that’s exactly why I’m attacking the First Half Moneyline (-135).
If you’re buying into the narrative that Orlando has checked out, that usually shows up early. If Charlotte is going to run them out of the building with their defense and three-point shooting, it’s going to happen quick. The statistical contrast in the first half is staggering:
- Charlotte has been the seventh-most profitable team in the first half this season.
- Orlando is an abysmal 16-26 ATS in the first half at home—a measly 38% cover rate.
I’m paying a bit of a premium on the moneyline at -135 instead of the -1.5 spread because my luck with razor-thin first-half margins has been non-existent lately.
I want to avoid the hook and just bet on the better team to show up and punch a demoralized Magic squad in the mouth early. Let's get in, get out, and let the Hornets’ first-half dominance do the work before the clutch-time ghosts can even show up.
Pick: Hornets First Half Moneyline (-135)
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Warriors vs. Suns Spread Prediction
Steve Kerr has already signaled that the Warriors' core vets—Steph Curry, Al Horford, and Kristaps Porzingis—are in line for a significant minutes bump now that they’ve cleared the first game. Taking the leash off those guys in a do-or-die scenario is a big deal, especially for a Golden State team that has already taken three-of-four games against Phoenix this season.
The coaching gap here is wide. While I’ve liked Jordan Ott, it seems like he’s been a bit lost in the weeds lately. His decision to play Grayson Allen in a meaningless game last Friday—when Phoenix was already locked into the 7-seed—was baffling. Now, Allen is questionable with a hamstring injury, and his absence would be a huge blow.
We also saw some questionable tactical moves from Ott recently against the Blazers. He matched small-for-small, which was exactly what Portland wanted; it cleared the lane for Deni Avdija to get to the rim and removed any semblance of rim protection.
Against a team like Phoenix, which ranks 27th in the NBA in shooting (only better than the Kings and Nets), you have to keep a big like Mark Williams on the floor to protect the paint. You have to force them to beat you from deep, not give them a layup line.
Kerr, on the other hand, is coming off a game where even the Clippers' stars were calling his game plan "beautiful." Between the veteran experience of Kerr and the increased workload for the Warriors' stars, I love Golden State at this number.
The market is currently moving toward Phoenix, likely on the hope of good news regarding Grayson Allen, so I might be on the wrong side of the closing line value (CLV) here—but I’m backing the Warriors on the spread in this spot.
Pick: Warriors +3.5 (-110)
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Hornets vs. Magic Player Prop Pick
By Kyle Murray
I’m targeting a potential buy-low spot here for Kon Knueppel. I love the Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA) in this matchup.
Knueppel has taken a fair amount of heat in the media for his lack of production in the first Play-In game, but when you look at what he’s done over the course of the season, the efficiency is there. He has been a productive scorer, a solid contributor on the glass, and has shown real flashes in the assist category.
So, I believe this is the perfect spot for a bounce-back spot for him.
The biggest factor for me is the minutes floor. Knueppel played 34 minutes in the first game, and while that sounds like a lot, he didn't see the floor in overtime or much of the fourth quarter.
We saw Coby White’s minutes cut into his time late, but Coby really only played about 20 regulation minutes—which has been his consistent role since the trade deadline.
Knueppel logged 21 minutes in the first half alone, and in a do-or-die game, teams usually tighten the rotation even further.
I see a clear path to 36-38 minutes for Knueppel tonight. The Hornets can easily trim the workloads of guys like Grant Williams (18 minutes) or Sion James (14 minutes) to keep Knueppel on the floor.
Tactically, Charlotte might also lean into small-ball lineups, using Miles Bridges at the five to match up with Wendell Carter Jr. instead of relying heavily on Moussa Diabaté or Ryan Kalkbrenner.
My projection has Knueppel at 28.5 PRA over 36 minutes, which gives us a significant edge against this 24.5 line. We’re also looking at some simple positive regression; he barely got any shots up in Game 1, and that’s going to change.
Pick: Kon Knueppel Over 24.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-110)
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Warriors vs. Suns Prop Bet
By Kyle Murray
My primary reason for this play is the "eye test"—during the last game, Jalen Green looked like a man playing with a massive chip on his shoulder. After the amount of hate he received for not showing up in the postseason last year, he’s clearly out to prove something.
Even in a loss, he was aggressive, hunting big shots, hitting his open looks, and finding multiple ways to score. The usage numbers from the last outing were eye-popping. Green finished with a staggering 42% usage rate, while Devin Booker sat at 30%.
Now, realistically, that gap isn't sustainable—especially considering Booker has absolutely torched the Warriors all season, averaging 30 points per game against them. However, even if that usage regresses toward the mean, Green’s current level of involvement in the offense makes this 27.5 line look very attainable.
The reason I’m targeting the full PRA combo rather than just his points is the rebounding ceiling. While Green isn’t necessarily known for stuffing the stat sheet, this is a favorable rebounding matchup for a guard with his athleticism.
In the last game, he logged 39 minutes and hauled in five boards. If he can stay on the floor for that kind of heavy workload again tonight, grabbing five or six rebounds becomes very likely.
If he matches his recent scoring aggression and chips in with those extra boards, he should wrangle in this combo prop with room to spare.
Pick: Jalen Green Over 27.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-135)
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Hornets vs. Magic Total Prediction
By Bet Labs
Tonight’s Eastern Conference Play-In matchup between the Magic and the Hornets serves as a prime case study for our Bet Labs system titled "Unders – Short Home 'Dogs."
The theory behind this system is rooted in the unique psychological and tactical environment of the postseason, where high stakes and narrow margins lead to a significant suppression of scoring. The system targets games where the home team is an underdog between +1.5 and +5.5.
In this scenario, the Magic are hosting the Hornets as short home 'dogs, a spread that indicates a highly competitive, "toss-up" environment.
Historically, when a home team is catching a small number of points in the playoffs, the game transforms into a physical, half-court grind.
The home crowd fuels defensive intensity, while the "do-or-die" pressure of the Play-In tournament often leads to "tight" shooting and more methodical, risk-averse offensive execution.
The total for this game is set at 218.5, and the system suggests the Under is the clear play. In a one-game playoff scenario, transition opportunities tend to evaporate as teams prioritize transition defense to avoid easy buckets.
We expect Charlotte and Orlando to emphasize half-court sets, where every possession is treated with maximum urgency. Orlando, specifically, has leaned on a defensive identity at home all season, and being a short underdog suggests they will be competitive enough to keep this game from turning into a high-paced blowout.
By catching a short number at home, the Magic are in a position to turn this into a low-possession slugfest. When you combine the physical nature of these specific rosters with the historical trend of short home dogs playing in lower-scoring environments, the Under 218.5 offers significant value.
This system isn't just about the teams on the floor—it’s about how the postseason environment forces even high-powered offenses into a slower, more deliberate pace.
Pick: Under 218.5 (-110)
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Warriors vs. Suns Player Prop
By Kyle Murray
I’m playing the "injury report game" a little bit with this one, but I’m fading Jordan Goodwin and taking the Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds, and Assists (PRA). This play really hinges on the availability and health of Grayson Allen.
If Allen is even 50% healthy, I expect him to suit up for a game of this magnitude — but even if he isn’t a full-go and only logs around 20 minutes, that's enough to significantly eat into Goodwin's playing time.
Right now, I have Grayson Allen projected for 24 minutes, which bumps Goodwin down to a 22-minute workload. In that window, my model projects Goodwin for just 12.5 PRA.
This is a minutes-based fade; if he isn't on the floor, he simply can't clear this line.
Beyond the injury news, there is a lot of competition for minutes in this rotation. Ryan Dunn cracked the rotation much more significantly in Game 1 than I initially projected. While I’m not saying he’ll play over Goodwin, he is another body that can take minutes away.
The Suns also have Royce O'Neale and even Collin Gillespie—who didn't play much in the first game but could steal time if he gets hot.
From a usage standpoint, Goodwin is at the bottom of the pecking order. Between Devin Booker, Jalen Green, and Dillon Brooks, the high-usage guys are going to soak up almost everything on the offensive end.
While Goodwin is a solid rebounder for his size, he just won't have the consistent opportunities to produce. Defensively, the Suns can lean on Brooks as their primary stopper, which makes Goodwin’s defensive utility less of a must-have for the coaching staff.
Even if Allen plays tonight, I see way more paths to Goodwin losing minutes than gaining them.
Pick: Jordan Goodwin Under 14.5 Points, Rebounds & Assists (-102)
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