NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Collin Sexton Will Feast on Sunday (Jan. 31)
Brian Sevald/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Collin Sexton #2 of the Cleveland Cavaliers.
- It's relatively quiet around the NBA today, but there's some value in the props market.
- Malik Smith is focusing on a Collin Sexton over and breaks it down below.
Sunday’s slate is short with just six games scheduled, but there is still some value to be found. Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the book that offers the best odds across the market.
For those who are new to this article, we’ll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Nikola Jokic, Over 7.5 Assists (+116)
We are witnessing one of the best passing seasons from a big man in NBA history. Nikola Jokic is averaging 8.7 assists per game this season and is truly the fulcrum of the Denver Nuggets’ offense. Not only is Jokic averaging four more assists per game than the Nuggets’ actual point guard, Jamal Murray, his 14.6 Potential Assists (shots off his passes that were missed, but would count as an assist if they were made) are only topped by the most ball-dominant guards in the NBA.
Jokic hasn’t racked up as many assists over his past four games, averaging 4.5 per game over that stretch. But there is reason for optimism. Over that same span, Jokic has averaged 12 Potential Assists per game, which suggests his team has just missed shots off his passes. Jokic is still making the same amount of passes per game despite it not showing in his actual assist numbers.
Our prop tool has 8.4 as Jokic’s projection for assists today against the Jazz, and while most of the market has Jokic listed at 6.5 assists with higher juice on the over, FanDuel has his him listed at 7.5 with the over at plus money. You could play it safe and take the lower total, but I’ll play the over at +116.
Collin Sexton, Over 22.5 Points (-114)
Collin Sexton is really coming into his own this season in Cleveland after he was dismissed by many scouts when he was drafted as not having a true position. To be fair, that critique still has some merit.
The Cavaliers have a fun backcourt with an even more entertaining name (who doesn’t love SexLand?), but it’s difficult to tell who is the point guard on any given possession. Sexton leads the team in Touches per game (74.5) and has the second-highest Usage Rate (27.7) on the Cavs behind Andre Drummond.
Whether that makes him a point guard, combo guard or something in between, he’ll be facing a the Minnesota Timberwolves who really struggle to contain point guards. The Wolves allow the most points per 48 minutes to points guards of any team in the NBA (27.7), according to Hashtag Basketball data.
Sexton has feasted on bad defenses this season (most recently the Nets and Pistons) and the Timberwolves may be down a starter if D’Angelo Russell ends up sitting with a quad injury. Our projections have Sexton at 23.8 points for tonight’s game and I’m backing him to hit the over at -114.