NBA Player Prop Bets & Picks: Expect LeBron to Facilitate Early and Often in Game 5 (Saturday, Sept. 12)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll, especially in the NBA postseason. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
|Win-Loss (Win Pct)|
|Bet Quality of 10||775-572 (57%)|
|Bet Quality of 9||942-776 (54%)|
|Bet Quality of 8||1432-1263 (52%)|
Saturday’s player props come from tonight’s lone game:
- Los Angeles Lakers vs. Houston Rockets at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
NBA Player Prop Bets
Russell Westbrook, Houston Rockets
The Prop: Over 7.5 Rebounds (-130)
We don’t know how the Rockets will respond after laying an egg in Game 4, but we do know that Westbrook is going to give it his all. Russ had an outlier performance in Thursday’s game, snagging only three boards. Westbrook has had at least eight rebounds in each of the other games in this series.
His season average is a smidge under eight rebounds per game. But in an elimination game and in need of a jolt of energy, I expect to see a motivated Westbrook trying to jumpstart the Rockets and make this a competitive game.
Now that the Lakers have embraced their small ball lineup, the lane should be more open for Westbrook to fly in and grab some rebounds. We are projecting Russ for 9.8 rebounds in 38 minutes, which gives this prop a 10 out of 10 confidence level. I see value all the way up to -150.
[Bet Westbrook now at bet365. NJ only.]
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Los Angeles Lakers, LeBron James
The Prop: Over 8.5 Assists (+100)
With a postseason schedule like this, rest is paramount. After the Clippers blew a double-digit Game 5 lead Friday, the other team from LA has a chance to take the first competitive advantage in the inevitable Battle for Los Angeles.
Having said that, I think we see a locked-in LeBron James in Game 5. James has done a good job of trying to get his teammates going early in games. That trend should continue tonight as James and the Lakers seek to harness momentum heading into the Western Conference Finals. The over has cashed this assist total twice in the first four games, and I think we are in for a third on Saturday night.
The player prop tool predicts LeBron to go for 9.4 assists, giving this an 8 out of 10 confidence score. I believe that James will focus on facilitating in Game 5 with rest on his mind and trying to have his teammates’ confidence at an all-time high.. I would play this to -125.
[Bet LeBron James now at bet365. NJ only.]
Houston Rockets, Jeff Green
The Prop: Under 4.5 Rebounds (+106)
Player props tend to move from game to game due to recency bias, whicch creates an exploitable market for bettors. This Jeff Green prop fits the bill for this idea.
Green has gone under this number in three of the first four games. He grabbed seven boards in Game 4, which was more than he his series total (6) over the first three games against LA. Now, Green’s rebounds prop is a bit inflated following his recent seven-rebound performance.
Our Player Prop tool predicts Green for 3.6 rebounds in 26 minutes, with the under generating a 10 out of 10 confidence rating. While the Lakers’ small-ball lineup may seemingly benefit a small five like Green, historically he has not been known for his rebounding. He averaged fewer than three rebounds per game during the regular season.
This under is a strong plus-EV play after Green’s recent rebounding total and oddsmakers’ subsequent over-correction to his prop. I would still play this to -120.
[Bet Jeff Green now at bet365. NJ only.]