NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: Michael Porter Jr. and Paul George Top Monday’s Plays (October 25)
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George #13 of the LA Clippers.
Using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks, I have laid out two props that I’m playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Michael Porter Jr., Over 17.5 Points (+100)
|Cavaliers vs. Nuggets||Nuggets -9.5|
|Time | TV||9 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass|
Michael Porter Jr. came into the season with a ton of buzz surrounding him after he signed a huge extension ahead of training camp, but that hasn’t exactly translated to the court so far in his first two games.
The fourth-year forward scored 15 points in the season opener against the Phoenix Suns and just seven points in Friday’s game against the San Antonio Spurs, shooting 2-of-6 on uncontested shots against San Antonio, according to the NBA’s tracking data.
What’s more odd is the low volume of shots Porter took in each game. He had 10 field goal attempts in both games, which is far below what we would expect from him considering the Nuggets don’t have Jamal Murray in their lineup. After Murray’s injury last season, Porter’s attempts jumped from 12.5 per game to 15.6 per game — he is not afraid to jack up shots.
The visiting Cavaliers are already one of the worst defensive teams in the league (they allow 113.6 points per 100 possessions) and play at the ninth-fastest Pace. The combination of poor defense and a quicker tempo should mean more shots for Porter Jr. I don’t expect him to go back-to-back games missing open shots, and at 17.5, this feels like a good spot to bet on him to bounce back.
Our prop tool rates this bet as an eight out of 10 and projects Porter to score 20 tonight; at plus-money, MPJ is worth a play.
Paul George, Over 5.5 Assists (-110)
|Trail Blazers vs. Clippers||Clippers -3|
|Time | TV||10:30 p.m. ET | NBATV|
We knew entering this season that the Clippers’ offense would run through Paul George, and through two games that is holding true. George has a 32.4 Usage Rate so far this season, and the visiting Trail Blazers will look to get the ball out of George’s hands to force other Clippers players to shoot.
Since joining the Clippers, George has proven to be an able and willing passer, as he has increased his assists per game from 3.4 to 5.2. Without Kawhi Leonard in the playoffs, George was at 5.6 assists per game.
PG has logged six and four assists respectively in two games, and that’s despite some poor shooting from a bunch of his teammates off his passes, per NBA Advanced Stats.
Our tool projects George to hit five assists, but I think he’ll get that extra assist to get us over the hook here.