We have reached the final day of pool play in the Las Vegas Summer League, and the betting board is only getting more fascinating as the tournament continues to unfold. Thursday brings us a loaded seven-game slate packed with wall-to-wall action, tipping off in the late afternoon at 4:00 p.m. ET and running continuously until the final buzzer of the 10:00 p.m. ET nightcap.
We’ve crunched the latest data, audited the individual on-floor metrics, and isolated where the market has overreacted to recent variance. Let's get into my NBA Summer League picks and predictions for Thursday, July 16.
NBA Summer League Picks, Predictions for Thursday, July 16
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4 p.m. | |
  | 6 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
  | 10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Mavericks vs. Thunder Prediction
This Thunder Summer League team simply cannot buy a bucket right now. They have cratered to an 0-3 start in Las Vegas while surrendering a -13.3 team point differential.
The fundamental flaw in Oklahoma City’s process is a lack of operational spacing; the Thunder are shooting a miserable 28.7% from long range across their three tournament games.
That perimeter frostbite isn't a new development either, as this group finished a miserable 0-3 run in the Salt Lake City tune-ups while leaking a massive -25.3 point differential.
Aday Mara continues to search for his footing, logging a quiet 8.7 points in 24.7 minutes per game, while guard Bennett Stirtz has struggled through a -10 on-floor differential while trying to organize their half-court shape.
The Dallas Mavericks offer a far more reliable offensive floor to exploit OKC's broken perimeter shell.
Dallas is sitting at a more competitive 1-2 with distinct backcourt playmaking to rely on. Ryan Nembhard has been steady at the point of attack, generating 13.5 points and 8.0 assists per game to keep their secondary actions tightly structured.
Up front, the Mavericks feature strong multi-positional athleticism in Tyler Smith (14.4 PPG) and center Morez Johnson, who is roughing up interiors for 18.5 points per clip.
Dallas takes better care of the ball, possesses superior point-of-attack creation, and won't throw away possessions the way this cold-shooting Oklahoma City team has done all week.
Pick: Mavericks Moneyline (-105)
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Lakers vs. Bulls Pick
The Los Angeles Lakers have been a betting dream in Las Vegas, steamrolling their way to a flawless 3-0 record while logging a tournament-best +15.7 overall team point differential.
Their transition execution has been surgical behind dynamic Adou Thiero, who is putting up a stellar 16.0 points per contest.
In the backcourt, the Lakers have found a nice supplementary punch in guard Cameron Carr, who is torching opposing defenses to the tune of 20.5 points per game.
With Arthur Kaluma providing 22.3 points of pure muscle in the paint, the Lakers have enough interior size to dominate the possession game in this matchup.
The Chicago Bulls managed a 1-2 start, but the structure of their rotation is facing a real analytical reality check.
Chicago is dependent on isolation volume from Caleb Wilson, who has shouldered a massive scoring load to average 24.3 points per game.
However, outside of Wilson’s individual shot-making, Chicago’s half-court geometry is quite flawed.
Kennedy Chandler is averaging a quiet 8.3 points while fighting through a negative on-floor point differential, and center Tobe Awaka has been compromised by length when trying to protect the rim.
The Lakers have too many solid wing athletes for Chicago to handle without over-rotating. I'll lay the 3.5 points with Los Angeles in this one.
Pick: Lakers -3.5 (-110)
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Grizzlies vs. Hawks Prediction
The Atlanta Hawks are rolling through Las Vegas with a perfect 3-0 record while holding a +15.3 overall team point differential.
Atlanta’s primary advantage is a beautifully distributed half-court attack anchored by Kobe Johnson, who has looked very comfortable within the system while putting up 19.3 points per game.
Up front, the Hawks boast premier defensive length in big man Khaman Maluach, who is altering everything at the rim while putting up 19.5 points and 12.8 rebounds per game.
Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have been competitive in this event at 2-1, but they are sliding into a tough physical bottleneck here.
Memphis has heavily relied on individual scoring variance from Cameron Boozer (18.7 PPG) and Olivier-Maxence Prosper (15.5 PPG), but their half-court efficiency drops off significantly when their primary sets are disrupted.
Javon Small has chipped in 14.7 points, but he faces a big upgrade in backcourt size against Atlanta's point-of-attack defenders.
With Maluach and Johnson taking away the center of the lane, the Grizzlies will likely be forced into a high volume of contested, late-clock isolation jumpers.
I'll back the Hawks to win a fourth straight game here.
Pick: Hawks -3.5 (-106)
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Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Pick
The Denver Nuggets have quietly put together an impressive showing in Las Vegas, sitting at 2-1 through their first three games.
The Nuggets operate with excellent half-court balance; Matthew Murrell has been solid on the perimeter, chipping in 7.0 points per contest, while guard Erik Stevenson handles secondary playmaking duties and contributes 12.0 points per clip.
Denver executes their baseline screens with immense physical purpose, consistently creating clean looks without resorting to stagnant, live-ball isolation mistakes.
The Portland Trail Blazers have managed a 1-2 split thus far, but their positive +6.0 team point differential is skewed by a hot-shooting stretch and masks some alarming baseline execution numbers.
Portland is vulnerable to ball pressure; DJ Steward has put up some strong numbers with 15.5 points per contest, but the Trail Blazers lack the frontcourt stability to generate consistent stop-and-score sequences when their perimeter shots aren't falling.
Denver possesses enough multi-positional depth and low-turnover continuity to pull away when Portland's generic pick-and-roll sets begin to stall out. I'll back the Nuggets tonight.
Pick: Nuggets -2.5 (-110)
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