NBA Player Prop Bets, Picks: 3 Plays, Including Michael Porter Jr. (Tuesday, October 26)
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Michael Porter Jr.
We’re officially one week into the NBA season, and Tuesday offers another solid five-game slate. Tonight’s props focus on the 8:00 pm ET and later games that have a lot of star power, but the marquee matchup is the nightcap between the Denver Nuggets and Utah Jazz.
With LeBron James being downgraded to questionable, it’s hard to project how the new (and old) Lakers will perform, so I went with a few players from the GS-OKC, HOU-DAL, and DEN-UTA contests.
Let’s dive in!
Below, I have laid out three prop bets that I’m playing using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, the case for each bet, and the best books to find odds on those player props.
NBA Player Props & Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 4.5 Assists (+110)
|Warriors vs. Thunder||Thunder +9.5|
|Time | TV||8 p.m. ET|
The Thunder are 0-3 and face the visiting Warriors at home on Tuesday night. Gilgeous-Alexander is coming off his best game of the year, dropping 29 points with 8 assists across 38 minutes versus the 76ers.
Through three games this year, he’s averaging 4.0 assists per game, but the Warriors will likely force him to make plays for others as he’s the only competent scorer for Oklahoma City. At 4.5 assists and at plus odds, this is good value for SGA to exceed market expectations.
FantasyLabs projects SGA to play 31.8 minutes against the Dubs, and while his career numbers against Golden State fall short of 4.5 assists (averaging 3.3 in 7 games played), his Thunder teammates are missing their opportunities to score. According to NBA Advanced Stats, he’s averaging 9.0 potential assists per game this season.
The Warriors are second in the NBA in Pace through the first week of the season, and with the Thunder still searching for their first win as 9.5-point home dogs, this is a good spot for SGA to fill up the box score. Our action projection tool has Gilgeous-Alexander dishing out 5.7 assists with a bet quality rating of 10/10; I like this over at plus odds.
Kevin Porter Jr. over 4.5 Assists (-135 )
|Rockets vs. Mavericks||Mavericks -10.5|
|Time | TV||8:30 p.m. ET|
The other Porter Jr. has been a turnover machine through the first three games of the season. He started out the year with nine turnovers and had eight against the Celtics a couple of days ago.
The positive here is that the Rockets are going nowhere fast, and there isn’t a ton of depth behind him to run the offense. Job security is important, and even with his struggles offensively, he’s a sure bet to play a lot of minutes and have the ball in his hands versus the Mavericks on Tuesday night.
According to NBA Advanced Stats, KPJ is averaging a team-high 45 passes per game along with 7.3 potential assists per game this season. The Mavs are middle of the pack in defensive efficiency (103.7) through their first two contests. And, while it’s a small sample size, Trae Young (14) and Fred VanVleet (5) successfully surpassed KPJ’s current assist market against the Mavs.
He’s averaging 5.3 assists this season, but that number is propped up by his 10 assist performance against the Thunder. 31% of his assists have gone to Christian Wood, but 56% of his assists have come from beyond the arc. The Mavs are doing a good job protecting the paint but are allowing opponents to shoot three-pointers at a rate of 40.2%.
As an 11-point road dog, this game has garbage time written all over it which should still benefit KPJ’s potential. In 23 games where he has played between 30 and 39 minutes, he’s averaging 5.3 dimes. Our action projection tool has Kevin Porter Jr. amassing 6.3 assists, so I’m going over on this prop as well.
Michael Porter Jr. over 5.5 Rebounds (-125)
|Nuggets vs. Jazz||Jazz -7|
|Time | TV||10 p.m. ET|
Porter Jr. entered the 2021-22 season as one of the favorites to win the Most Improved Player award and rightfully so. He became the second option in the Nuggets offense and turned this opportunity into 22.8 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists in 23 games with Murray (torn ACL) out of the lineup.
However, it’s been a rough start to the season for MPJ. In three games played, he’s averaging a mere 11.0 points with 4.7 rebounds and 2.7 assists across 29.3 minutes. Despite his struggles, the Jazz offer a great buy-low opportunity for Porter Jr.
The four-year pro is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game in his career versus the Jazz. He has also cleared 5.5 rebounds in three of his last four games against Utah. He grabbed six rebounds to open the season, but minutes have been hard to come by. He played 27 minutes in the last two contests, but if he can see over 30+ minutes tonight, 5.5 rebounds shouldn’t be a challenge for him.
When he’s received 30-39 minutes in his career, he’s averaged 8.1 rebounds per game. FantasyLabs projects him getting 33 minutes tonight, supporting this potential outcome.
The Utah Jazz are undefeated, and the Nuggets are 7.5-point dogs. In what is likely to be the game of the night, expect MPJ to come out motivated as he carries a 3-1 record versus the Jazz in his career. Our action projection tool has Porter Jr. amassing 7.5 rebounds tonight, and with a bet quality rating of 10, I’m going over yet again to close out Tuesday’s props.
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