Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday, Jan. 2): How to Bet Paul George & Montrezl Harrell Props

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That's where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s nine games:

• Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
• Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

Let’s dive in.

Heat SF Duncan Robinson

THE PICK: Under 11 points (-114)

Duncan Robinson had one heck of a December. Robinson scored 13.9 points on 3.9 3s per game, hitting a sparkling 50.4% of his 3s and every single one of his free throws. He was on fire for an entire month, yet another huge undrafted find for this Miami roster.

And yet our models project Robinson at just eight points tonight. Why is that? Well … regression.

Robinson averaged 7.8 3-point attempts per game in December along with just 1.2 twos. In other words, his scoring is almost entirely dependent on 3s, and 3-point percentage is inconsistent and regresses to the mean in time. Add in a tough Toronto defense that doesn't leave many open shots, and the under looks like a worthwhile play here.

This prop rates a 10 out of 10, and you'll recall that under props rated 10 hit almost two-thirds of the time last year. I like those odds. Fade Robinson as high as -140.

Clippers C Montrezl Harrell

THE PICK: Under 16.5 points (-130)

It's always tough to know what sort of minutes to expect in a Clippers game this season, and a home matchup against a Pistons team missing Blake Griffin reeks of load management. So what does that mean for Harrell?

Normally it might mean more playing time, but Harrell missed a game last week for illness and played only 24 minutes in his return, so he could be eased back into action.

On top of that, Harrell's counterpart, Ivica Zubac, will likely be called upon more than usual with Andre Drummond crashing the boards for the Pistons. Zubac is the closest thing L.A. has to a Drummond matchup, and Harrell has little chance against him.

There are a bunch of ways Harrell can come up short in this one, and our models project him at 12.6 points, so we've got a little cushion here. Play Harrell confidently up to -150.

Clippers SF Paul George

THE PICK: Over 3.5 assists (-159)

As with Harrell, it's tough to predict how the minutes will play out in this one, but when in doubt, it's reasonable to expect a lighter game from Kawhi Leonard.

This could be more of a Paul George game, and PG could get a lot of time on the ball with Patrick Beverley out and Landry Shamet starting in his place as nothing but a shooter.

George fell one assist short of a triple-double against the Kings onTuesday. He's already averaging 3.8 dimes per game this season, so adding in more time on the ball without a point guard gives a lot of reason to like the over here. Our model rates this a 10 out of 10 as well, and you can play PG's assists up to -175.