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Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday, Jan. 2): How to Bet Paul George & Montrezl Harrell Props

Credit:

Juan Ocampo/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul George (13), Montrezl Harrell (5) of the Los Angeles Clippers.

  • The Los Angeles Clippers host the Detroit Pistons on Thursday night as huge betting favorites (12.5 points).
  • Paul George has been in a shooting slump of late, so with that in mind, what the best way to bet his props tonight?
  • Brandon Anderson analyzes our proprietary projections and the latest prop betting odds to pick out a bet for George's props, along with the Clippers' Montrezl Harrell.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.


Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s nine games:

  • Toronto Raptors at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
  • Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV

Let’s dive in.

Heat SF Duncan Robinson

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