Moore: Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Take Advantage of Portland’s Defensive Flaws?

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is sliding under the radar as one of the most impressive rookies of this class. He's contributing big minutes in a key role for a team that's in the playoff hunt, and has flashed far more than what was expected of his draft profile.

The prop opened at Over/Under 10 points and our FantasyLabs player prop model gave the over a bet quality rating of 10.

The line has since moved to 10.5, lowering the bet quality to 7. Do the analytics and film suggest there still could be value on backing Gilgeous-Alexander to hit 11 points?

The Blazers are 27th guarding the pick and roll ball-handler on scoring possessions via Synergy Sports. Much of this is due to their inability to navigate space with their bigs, so they have to drop, and their guards are too small to get over and contest:

Even when they switch, the lose contain. This is going to be a problem with how good the Clippers are at screening:

SGA meanwhile, is impressively in the 68th percentile in scoring out of the pick and roll this season. He is shooting 49 percent eFG% on pull-up jumpers in those spots, and can do it vs. bigger defenders, like LaMarcus Aldridge:

Gilgeous-Alexander generates five points per game out of the pick and roll, alone. He's been a poor spot-up shooter overall, but when left unguarded has shot a stellar 61.4 percent eFG this season on catch-and-shoot opportunities.

The Blazers are 29th in defending spot-ups, in large part because they struggle to contain guys who pump fake and get to the rim. (Portland is 22nd at defending around the rim on non-post-ups despite, or perhaps because of the presence of Jusuf Nurkic.)

Gilgeous-Alexander hasn't driven off spot-ups hardly at all this season, instead choosing to stick to just shooting or resetting the offense. If Portland doesn't close out effectively, that could lead to extra buckets as well.

Since December 1, the Blazers are 19th in defensive rating; that's where they've fallen off most since their hot start. The Clippers are also cooling off, and SGA has only scored in double digits three times in his last eight games.

But he's scored 10 or more in the majority, 15 of the Clippers' 29 games, and with small guards and slow bigs trying to contain him, there's reason to follow the FantasyLabs prop tool and back the over.