Monday’s Best NBA Player Props: Ride with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Pictured: Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2), Photo Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA Today Sports
- Monday's 11-game NBA slate features three player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on Hornets PF P.J. Washington, Kings PF Nemanja Bjelica, and Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s 11 games:
- Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Sacramento Kings at Boston Celtics: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Oklahoma City Thunder at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV
Let’s dive in.
Hornets PF P.J. Washington
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (-120)
Washington started the season on fire for the Hornets, but his role his dwindled recently. He’s played 22.2 minutes or less in three of his past four games, and he’s unsurprisingly scored five points or fewer in each of those contests.
He’s not expected to see a bump in playing time today, so it seems unlikely that he’ll an uptick in scoring today vs. the Heat. Washington also has a tough matchup, with the Heat currently ranking third in defensive efficiency.
Washington is going to need a really hot shooting night to hit the over given his current workload, which is something I’m willing to bet against. I like the under up to -150.
Kings F Nemanja Bjelica
THE PICK: Over 7.5 rebounds (-110)
The Kings are extremely thin at the moment. De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, and Trevor Ariza will all miss tonight’s contest, while Bogdan Bogdanovic is listed as questionable. That should result in another increased workload for Bjelica, who has played at least 29.0 minutes in four straight games. Bjelica has averaged 10.3 rebounds per game over that time frame, and he’s pulled down at least eight boards in three of those contests.
He’s in a great spot for rebounding today vs. the Boston Celtics. They rank just 26th in team rebound rate, and their offense could be less efficient than usual with Kemba Walker out of the lineup.
This line is too low considering Bjelica’s recent production. I like the over up to -135.
Thunder G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
THE PICK: Over 5.0 rebounds (+110)
Gilgeous-Alexander has put together a solid start to his sophomore campaign. He leads the Thunder with an average of 35.0 minutes per game, and he’s averaged a respectable 5.3 rebounds per game. Overall, he’s pulled down at least five rebounds in 10 of his first 15 games, and he’s eclipsed five rebounds in eight of those contests.
He’s in a great spot today vs. the Golden State Warriors. They rank just 23rd in rebound rate and 24th in offensive efficiency, which is a good combination for a bunch of rebound opportunities.
I like the idea of grabbing this prop at better than even money, but I’d be willing to play it up to -115.